Thread: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

Eastern Pacific Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup

Invest in the pacific has a 90% chance of becoming a depression. In the Atlantic, the Carribean invest has a 40% chance but hasn't changed at all during the day.

Looks like the first NHC TC of the season may be upon us.

[basin: EPAC] Ladies and gentlemen of this thread, we now have TD1-E.

It's forecasted to develop into TS Adrian by 5am Wednesday morning [via the nhc].

TD 1-E is expected to strengthen into Hurricane Adrian.

94L is all but dead.

[EPac]Via the NHC, we now have Hurricane Adrian. It's forecasted to continue in its current state until Monday.

Also, the JTWC has issued a TCFA for the invest out in the western Pacific.

[EP]Adrian is now a major hurricane with windspeeds of 115 mph.

[WP]That invest is now TD05W. If it's given a name and makes it to TS status, it will be given the name "Sarika". Considering that forecasted strength is right at 35 knots, I think it's a stretch tbh.

And now Adrian is going annular, which means it will be a tough one to snuff out by environment.

It does look like it's going annular, but it's also out at sea, so it shouldn't be a big deal (which is a good thing, it's a little buzzsaw).

I dunno. Annulars have a habit of mocking forecasters, if anyone remembers Epsilon.

Originally Posted by Eredar Warlock

I dunno. Annulars have a habit of mocking forecasters, if anyone remembers Epsilon.

I do, but just because it's annular doesn't mean it gets to ignore steering currents and SSTs. It doesn't pose a threat to any mainland.

Hurricane Adrian is now a Category 4 hurricane with estimated windspeeds of 130 mph.

Adrian is almost dead, Sarika is dead, and TS 1-A in the Arabian Sea has come and (almost) gone.

the record of deadness is gone. somewhat.

[WP]Coming out of nowhere, it's TD06W! It's forecasted to track northwestward and hit up to 35 knots as its peak strength. Next name on the list: Haima.

[EP]Suddenly, an invest!

Originally Posted by nhc

1. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

If it develops, it gains the name Beatriz.

Both AOIs developed and we have Tropical Storm Beatriz (which is forecasted to become a Cat. 1 cane), and TD 6-W, which is not supposed to gain a name.