2011 Tropical Cyclones - Page 5

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Thread: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

  1. #61
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Eastern Pacific Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup

    Invest in the pacific has a 90% chance of becoming a depression. In the Atlantic, the Carribean invest has a 40% chance but hasn't changed at all during the day.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Looks like the first NHC TC of the season may be upon us.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    [basin: EPAC] Ladies and gentlemen of this thread, we now have TD1-E.

    It's forecasted to develop into TS Adrian by 5am Wednesday morning [via the nhc].
    the vile, wandering one sneaks up

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    TD 1-E is expected to strengthen into Hurricane Adrian.

    94L is all but dead.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    [EPac]Via the NHC, we now have Hurricane Adrian. It's forecasted to continue in its current state until Monday.
    the vile, wandering one sneaks up

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Also, the JTWC has issued a TCFA for the invest out in the western Pacific.

  7. #67
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    [EP]Adrian is now a major hurricane with windspeeds of 115 mph.

    [WP]That invest is now TD05W. If it's given a name and makes it to TS status, it will be given the name "Sarika". Considering that forecasted strength is right at 35 knots, I think it's a stretch tbh.
    the vile, wandering one sneaks up

  8. #68
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    And now Adrian is going annular, which means it will be a tough one to snuff out by environment.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    It does look like it's going annular, but it's also out at sea, so it shouldn't be a big deal (which is a good thing, it's a little buzzsaw).

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    I dunno. Annulars have a habit of mocking forecasters, if anyone remembers Epsilon.

  11. #71
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Quote Originally Posted by Eredar Warlock View Post
    I dunno. Annulars have a habit of mocking forecasters, if anyone remembers Epsilon.
    I do, but just because it's annular doesn't mean it gets to ignore steering currents and SSTs. It doesn't pose a threat to any mainland.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Hurricane Adrian is now a Category 4 hurricane with estimated windspeeds of 130 mph.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Adrian is almost dead, Sarika is dead, and TS 1-A in the Arabian Sea has come and (almost) gone.

  14. #74
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    the record of deadness is gone. somewhat.

    [WP]Coming out of nowhere, it's TD06W! It's forecasted to track northwestward and hit up to 35 knots as its peak strength. Next name on the list: Haima.

    [EP]Suddenly, an invest!

    Quote Originally Posted by nhc
    1. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
    SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS NOT
    BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
    MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST.
    If it develops, it gains the name Beatriz.
    the vile, wandering one sneaks up

  15. #75
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Both AOIs developed and we have Tropical Storm Beatriz (which is forecasted to become a Cat. 1 cane), and TD 6-W, which is not supposed to gain a name.

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