2011 Tropical Cyclones - Page 4

Page 4 of 10 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 144

Thread: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

  1. #46
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    171 canfield ave
    Posts
    13

    Exclamation Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    wow. those cyclones are really destructive. it's like almost the end of the world

  2. #47
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Quote Originally Posted by iloveharuka11 View Post
    wow. those cyclones are really destructive. it's like almost the end of the world
    wut.

    --

    Anyway, Bune never did reach Cat. 2, but it's still a Cat. 1 even though it's well on its way of weakening.

  3. #48
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    And we have Errol!

    There was a short-lived storm in there since Bune, earlier this month.

  4. #49
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Errol... went north? And hit Timor? The fuck?

    Anyway, it's dead, and with that, it's probably the last S. Hemisphere cyclone for the season.
    Oh, but a couple of weeks ago, there was a tropical depression in the western pacific. Things should start shaping up in that basin soon.

  5. #50
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Posts
    10

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Quote Originally Posted by iloveharuka11 View Post
    wow. those cyclones are really destructive. it's like almost the end of the world
    Yes. They are really terrible, just like earthquakes in Japan.
    Last edited by Archangel; 24th April 2011 at 08:00 PM.

  6. #51
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Quote Originally Posted by Archangel View Post
    Yes. They are really terrible, just like earthquakes in Japan.
    Fortunately, there is some level of predictability with tropical cyclones, so we can prepare for them and protect people and save lives.

  7. #52
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    The first tropical cyclone of the year in the Northern Hemisphere has formed -- Tropical Storm Aere. Not predicted to make it to typhoon status, but it will affect the Philippines.

    Also, I'll update the first post.

    Update: Right now, it's affecting almost all of the Philippines, with the exception of Northern Luzon and Southern Mindanao. The most dangerous portions of the storm are over extreme Southeastern Luzon, Masbate, and especially Samar Island. If there are any Filipino members of BMGf, I advise caution. It's a weak storm, but still.
    Last edited by hurristat; 7th May 2011 at 01:21 PM.

  8. #53
    追放されたバカ
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    Driven by hate, consumed by fe
    Posts
    2,566
    Blog Entries
    30

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/05/19/2011-hurricane-season-noaa-forecast/

    Quote Originally Posted by Fox News
    The nation's top meteorologists issued their 2011 hurricane-season forecast Thursday, predicting a serious and above-average season -- though not one as tumultuous as the violent 2010 season.

    Hurricane season for the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30. That's when about 90 percent of the storms make themselves present. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned that this year's season will be above average, with as many as 10 hurricanes blasting their 110 mile per hour winds across the area.

    “We could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

    2011 will be above average -- even severe, the agency said -- but probably not as dramatic as last year.

    "This year, we are unlikely to see a repeat of last year," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans & atmosphere and NOAA administrator. The 2010 hurricane season was predicted to be devastating, with as many as 14 hurricanes; it ended up as the third most active on record.

    Despite the above average 2010 hurricane season, the country did not have significant damage last year, Lubchenko said. But she urged caution nonetheless. "We cannot count on having the same luck this year," she said.

    NOAA's forecast for 2011 predicts 12 to 18 named storms with winds 39 mph or greater. Of those, NOAA expects 6 to 10 hurricanes with winds of at least 75 miles per hour. And of those, the meteorologists expect 3 to 6 could be major storms, with winds of 110 mph or greater.

    The outlook does not forecast when or where these storms will hit, Lubchenco cautioned.

    The waters in the Atlantic ocean are not as warm as they were last year, NOAA said, though they are still warm enough to support an above average season. La Nina, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June. But its impacts -- such as reduced wind shear -- are expected to continue into the hurricane season and will help boost hurricane formatoin.

    This prediction aligns with the forecast issued in early April by Colorado State University meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, who predicted a strong forecast for 2011 as well.

    "Overall, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season," their forecast reads.

    The national weather agency urged caution and preparedness for anyone who lives within the hurricane evacuation zone.

    “The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.

    "As we move into this hurricane season it’s important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public,” he said.

    May 22-28 is national Hurricane Preparedness Week, the agency noted, and urged residents of hurricane-prone areas to prepare by watching a set of new video and audio announcements featuring NOAA hurricane experts.

    NOAA had predicted the 2010 season would be one of the strongest seasons on record -- a forecast that stirred fears that the Gulf oil spill would be impacted by the severe weather.

  9. #54
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    PSU, one of the country's leading hurricane research centres, has predicted 16 storms.

    I think the 16 and 15 are a tad high since I'm expecting El Nino conditions to kick in late September/early October.

    I'd put it more around 13.

    But then again, I'm not an expert, am I?

  10. #55
    Disturb not the harmony Jeff's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    Maryland, USA
    Posts
    1,157

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    The hurricane tracking map on NOAA's website is now up and running again. Nothing to show yet, of course that's expected seeing as the Atlantic season hasn't officially started yet and the Pacific season is still young.

    Staff member at The PokéMasters (Forums - Facebook page)
    Joined April 5, 2005

  11. #56
    shhhhh.
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Gender
    Female
    Location
    Linfa's throne
    Posts
    6,612
    Blog Entries
    40

    Follow Parma on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    while we were out, songda became the first WPac super typhoon of the season. windspeed is 130 knots after previously reaching 140 knots. lowest pressure = 920 mb which seems a bit conservative to me.

    probably old, but wth

    current warning for the time being

    You've found Noctowl!



    This bird is quite clever, you'll have to be if you want to go further.
    Before you do anything, put everything in order, you'll find a key in the form of a number.


    Participants must PM either @Parmalee or @Hellion with the number!
    Last edited by Parma; 1st December 2011 at 02:44 AM.
    the vile, wandering one sneaks up

  12. #57
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    I've been out for a little while (with the forums, fortunately), so here's the update:

    Songda managed to hit a Category 5 on the SSHS, and became a super typhoon.

    It has now fortunately weakened to a Cat 4, but it's still dangerous.

  13. #58
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Songda's all but dead. Fortunately for its strength, it did surprisingly little damage. Always a good thing.

  14. #59
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    is it beautiful here
    Posts
    7,696
    Blog Entries
    37

    Follow hurristat on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    The first day of hurricane season, and we're already busy:

    Quote Originally Posted by NHC
    A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

  15. #60
    shhhhh.
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Gender
    Female
    Location
    Linfa's throne
    Posts
    6,612
    Blog Entries
    40

    Follow Parma on Tumblr

    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    It gets better.

    Quote Originally Posted by nhc
    1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
    JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
    HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
    EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
    IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
    THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
    30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
    THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
    CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
    JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    It's possible for this one to make the jump.

    also, are we just gonna cover named storms in here? because there are gonna be a lot of invests looming and trying to make something of themselves.

    Quote Originally Posted by nhc but for the ep
    1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
    SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT.
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
    OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
    CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
    don't forget that it's in a vat of nice boiling water as well...

    and we got one in the Indian ocean too!

    Quote Originally Posted by jtwc
    THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N
    72.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 72.1E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
    SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
    SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050819Z AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS
    SHOWS WEAK BANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    DISTURBANCE, BUT OVERALL, THE CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE APPEARS
    FRAGMENTED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR
    VERAVAL AND POONA, JUST ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA, INDICATE A MSLP OF
    1002 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER
    THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
    FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
    UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
    Last edited by Parma; 5th June 2011 at 12:54 PM.
    the vile, wandering one sneaks up

Page 4 of 10 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •