2011 Tropical Cyclones

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    Default 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    With the turn of the calendar, a new year starts, and a new tropical cyclone season starts. Usually, the Real World has a thread just for the atlantic, but I figured we could include the rest of the world in one thread :D.

    Here are the names for this year:

    Atlantic
    Tropical Storm Arlene, made landfall in Mexico in Veracruz. Caused flooding in Central America and Mexico, June 29 - July 1
    Tropical Storm Bret, impacted the Northern Bahamas, July 17 - July 22
    Tropical Storm Cindy, July 20 - July 23
    Tropical Storm Don, minimally impacted Southern Texas, July 27 - July 30
    Tropical Storm Emily, impacted the Lesser Antilles, severely impacted Puerto Rico, caused flooding in the Dominican Republic, and minimally affected Bermuda, August 1 - August 7
    Tropical Storm Franklin, August 12 - August 14
    Tropical Storm Gert, minimally impacted Bermuda, August 14 - August 16
    Tropical Storm Harvey, impacted Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras, August 18 - August 22
    Hurricane Irene, impacted the Lesser Antilles, slammed Puerto Rico, caused flooding in Hispaniola, severely impacted the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, and caused record flooding and many blackouts on the East Coast of the United States, August 20 - August 29
    Tropical Depression 10, August 25 - August 27
    Tropical Storm Jose, August 28 - 29
    Hurricane Katia, August 29 -
    Tropical Storm Lee, caused flooding in Mississippi and Louisiana, winds sparked wildfires in Texas, September 1 - September 5
    Maria
    Nate
    Ophelia
    Philippe
    Rina
    Sean
    Tammy
    Vince
    Whitney

    Eastern Pacific
    Hurricane Adrian, June 7 - June 12
    Hurricane Beatriz, never made landfall but caused flooding in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Guerrero, Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, and Oaxaca, June 19 - June 22
    Hurricane Calvin, July 7 - July 10
    Hurricane Dora, storm surge caused minimal flooding in Southwest Mexico, July 18 - July 24
    Hurricane Eugene, July 31 - August 6
    Tropical Storm Fernanda, August 15 - August 20
    Hurricane Greg, August 16 - August 21
    Tropical Depression 8-E, made landfall in Southwestern Mexico, August 31 - September 1
    Hilary
    Irwin
    Jova
    Kenneth
    Lidia
    Max
    Norma
    Otis
    Pilar
    Ramon
    Selma
    Todd
    Veronica
    Wiley
    Xina
    York
    Zelda

    Central Pacific (the next 4 names)
    Pewa
    Unawa
    Wali
    Ana

    Western Pacific (the next 25 names)
    Tropical Depression 1-W, April 1 - April 4
    Tropical Depression 2-W, April 3 - April 6
    Tropical Storm Aere, May 5 - May 12, caused severe flooding in the Philippines but never made landfall.
    Super Typhoon Songda, May 19 - May 29, caused flooding in the Philippines, slammed Okinawa, made landfall in southern Japan as a dying typhoon
    Tropical Storm Sarika, impacted the Philippines, and made landfall in Shantou, China, June 8 - June 11
    Tropical Storm Haima, made landfall in Zhanjiang, China, and Hanoi, Vietnam, June 16 - June 25
    Tropical Storm Meari, caused flooding in South Korea, effects due to landfall in North Korea unknown, June 20 - June 27
    Typhoon Ma-on, affected Shikoku and Southern Honshu in Japan, July 11- July 24
    Tropical Depression Tokage, July 14 - July 16
    Typhoon Nock-ten, caused damage and flooding on Luzon, made landfall on the Chinese island of Hainan and caused moderate damage, and made landfall in Northern Vietnam, July 24 - July 31
    Super Typhoon Muifa, impacted the Philippines, Okinawa, Eastern China, and made landfall in North Korea and left flooding in both North and South Korea.
    Typhoon Merbok, August 3 - August 9
    Tropical Depression 13-W, August 8 - August 15
    Typhoon Nanmadol, caused massive damage in Northern Luzon, made landfall twice on Taiwan and caused massive damage, caused severe damage in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces in China, August 21 - August 31
    Tropical Storm Talas, made landfall in Central Shikoku and Western Honshu, caused severe flooding and damage, August 23 - September 5
    Tropical Storm Noru, September 2 - September 6
    Kulap
    Roke
    Sonca
    Nesat
    Haitang
    Nalgae
    Banyan
    Washi
    Parkar
    Sanvu
    Mawar

    Northern Indian (next 6)
    Tropical Storm 1-A, impacted the northwestern coast of India, June 11 - June 12
    Keila
    Thane
    Murjan
    Nilam
    Mahasen
    Phailin

    South-west Indian
    Cyclone Bingiza, February 9 - February 20, made landfall as a Category 3 on Northern Madagascar near Saranambana, crossed and made landfall on the west side of Madagascar near Befasy
    Tropical Storm Cherono, March 10 - March 23
    Dalilou
    Elvire
    Francis
    Giladi
    Haingo
    Igor
    Jani
    Khabonina
    Lumbo
    Maina
    Naledi
    Onani
    Paulette
    Qiloane
    Rafael
    Stella
    Tari
    Unjaty
    Vita
    Willy
    Ximene
    Yasmine
    Zama

    The Australian Region
    There are several sub-centres within Australia that name tropical cyclones. I'll put the next five names for each up:

    TCWC Jakarta
    Bakung
    Cempaka
    Dahlia
    Flamboyan
    Kenanga

    Australia BoM
    Tropical Storm Vince January 10 - January 15
    Cyclone Zelia January 13 - January 17
    Tropical St
    orm Anthony, January 23 - January 31, made landfall in Queensland north of Ayr, affected parts of Queensland from Cooktown to Ayr
    Cyclone Bianca, January 22 - January 30, affected the Western Coast of Australia from Darwin to Exmouth
    Tropical Storm 14-S, February 8 - February 13
    Cyclone Carlos, February 12 - February 27, affected all of the Northwest Australian Coast from Darwin to Exmouth
    Dianne, February 11 - February 22
    Tropical Storm 20-S, March 26 - April 6, affected much of the Northwest Australian coast from Darwin to Broome
    Tropical Storm Errol, April 10 - April 20, affected the Kalumbura, Australia area, and made landfall on Southern Timor.
    Fina
    Grant
    Heidi
    Iggy
    Jasmine
    Koji
    Lua
    Mitchell

    TCWC Port Moresby
    Alu
    Buri
    Dodo
    Emau
    Fere

    South Pacific Ocean (next 10 names)
    Tropical Storm Vania January 5 - January 15, affected Vanuatu and New Caledonia as a tropical storm.
    Cyclone Wilma, January 19 - January 28 , affected American Samoa and made landfall in Tonga
    Cyclone Yasi, January 26 - February 3, made landfall in Queensland, Australia, just south of Cairns
    Tropical Storm Zaka, February 5 - February 7
    Cyclone Atu, February 3 - February 24
    Cyclone Bune, March 22 - March 29, affected Eastern Fiji
    Cyril
    Daphne
    Evan
    Freda

    For those of you joining us (not that I expect many, but...), here is a brief summary of the process leading to hurricanes forming.

    Generally, a hurricane begins life as a group of large moisture clouds or thunderstorms over the tropics - a "Tropical wave". As these waves evolve and move over the ocean, they will either dissipate, or begin to organize - that is, the clouds and storms merging together into one large area of bad weather formed around one area of low atmospheric pressure.

    When that happens, we have a tropical depression. As the tropical depression moves around (usually) over the ocean, it will draw heat and moisture from the warm water on the surface, strengthening, and begin rotating around a central point. The stronger it grows, the more visible the central point - the eye - becomes from space ; if it grows strong enough, with clearly defined features, it may eventually become a hurricane.

    If not, it will return to a tropical depression, then eventually become a remnant.

    A lot of tropical storms or hurricanes stay out at sea. Others get around to hitting land ; this is called landfall.

    In the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, the United States National Huricane Center is in charge of tracking hurricanes. The US Navy assists in this. They use a variety of computer models to predict how storms may evolve.

    As with any other weather forecasting system, this is a bit of a touch-and-go affair : short-term predictions (the next day or three) tend to be pretty good predictions, but longer-term predictions tend to be a little off as often as not, and perhaps more often than not.

    When a tropical wave begin to show signs it may become a tropical depression, the navy will call it an INVEST. This is the first sign we usually get we may have a storm about to form.

    When a tropical wave actually becomes a tropical depression, the NHC or JTWC will assign it a number - these numbers go in order. So the first tropical depression of the year would be Tropical Depression One, the second Tropical Depression two, etc. For areas outside of the Atlantic, a letter is affixed to the end. For the Eastern Pacific, "-E" is added. For the Central Pacific, "-C" is added. For the Western Pacific, "-W" is added. For the Bay of Bengal, "-B" is added. For the Arabian Sea, "-A" is added. For the Southern Indian Ocean, "-S" is added. For the Southern Pacific Ocean, "-P" is added.

    If the tropical depression keeps growing, it will be upgraded to a Tropical Storm, and give it a name. The name comes from a list of names. The Eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and South-western Indian Ocean have alphabetical lists that of which they start at the beginning every season. The Central Pacific, Western Pacific, North Indian, Australian Region, and the South Pacific all have set lists that they rotate through and start at wherever they left off last season

    Once a tropical storm grows yet stronger, it will be upgraded to a hurricane/typhoon/cyclone. There are five categories of tropical cyclones; one is the weakest, 5 the strongest. Hurricanes of category three and above are referred to as "Major hurricanes".

    After the end of the season, the world meteorological organization will meet and review the season, as well as requests from various countries to have storm names retired.

    Storm names are retired when a storm was particularly lethal or damaging (although a country has to request it, and the requesting country has to have been affected by the storm). When a storm name is retired, it will never be used again, and another name will replace it the next time this year's list is used.

    USEFUL DEFINITIONS

    Eye
    The eye is a small area of apparent clear weather in the middle of a hurricane's cloud system.

    Invest
    An invest is an area of the Atlantic where the Navy's weather forecasting services feel there is a risk of hurricane formation. It's generally the first sign we have there are serious chances of a storm forming.

    Landfall
    Landfall refers to the EYE (or center, for those storms without eyes) of a hurricane touching ground. Thus, if it's said that a hurricane made landfall in south carolina, that means the eye of the hurricane came overland in South Carolina. Since storms and strong winds extend far from the eye, it's possible for a hurricane to cause damage and casualties without ever making landfall, if the eye remains just offshore.

    Organization
    Organization, with regard to tropical storm, refers to how the various smaller thunderstorms and storm clouds that form the tropical depression/storm/hurricane interact together. The more closely linked (ie, "better organized") they become, the more effective they are at transfering heat (which is what wind is), and the stronger the storm. Losing organization, for a storm, generally means becoming weaker.

    Storm Surge
    A hurricane, when it moves over the ocean, causes the waters of the ocean to rise toward the eye of the hurricane. When the eye come close to the coast, especially when it makes landfall, this cause rapid and significant flooding (somewhat similar to tidal waves) of the affected region. The storm surge is one of the most damaging portion of a hurricane : hurricane Katrina of 2005 had a storm surge of up to 25 feet, which was the primary source of the damage suffered.

    Tropical Depression
    A tropical depression is a weather system where clouds and storms have grouped together to form one large storm area. It has yet to acquire the typical "spiral" form of hurricanes, or their eyes, and has winds 38 miles per hour or less (62 KMH). Typically, tropical depressions tend to have comma-like shapes.

    Tropical Storm
    A tropical storm is a tropical depression that has become better organized. It has now begun to acquire hurricane-like characteristics, such as a more spiral-like form. Tropical storms generally have winds of up to 73 MPH. (117 KMH). Once a weather system becomes a tropical storm, it gets a name. Tropical storms can be quite deadly, even if they are weaker than hurricanes ; tropical storm Allison killed about 50 and caused for several billions in damage in 2001 in Texas.

    -Hurricane
    A hurricane is a tropical storm that has become further organized, and now has wind of 74 MPH or above. They are subdivided in five categories ; the last three of which are called major hurricanes. Hurricanes tend to have a well-defined spiral forms (the stronger they are, the better defined) with a clear eye in the middle.

    Category 1 hurricanes have winds up to 95 MPH. Category 2 goes up to 110 MPH. For major hurricanes, category 3 goes from 111 to 130 MPH, Category 4 from 131 to 155, and anything stronger is a category 5 hurricane.

    Wind Shear (sometime simply shear)
    Wind shear is the difference in wind strength between different altitudes. Since hurricanes occupy a large area vertically as well as horizontally, large differences between winds five hundred meter above five kilometers above sea level and ten kilometers above can result in a tropical depression, storm or hurricane becoming disorganized (the wind break up the clouds), and therefore beginning to weaken.

    Tropical Wave
    A loose gathering of storm clouds around an area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic sky. If the storm clouds begin to form together and organize, a tropical depression or worse may form.

    Convection
    This, effectively, is the evaporation of ocean water. Obviously, the more convection a tropical cyclone has, the stronger it is and the more likely it is to strengthen. It often arises from an unstable atmospheric environment. If an invest or a tropical depression is said to have a "burst of convection," that means that there is a large chance that it will strengthen in the near future.

    Subtropical
    The difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that subtropical storms are classified as "cold-core" storms, while tropical storms are classified as "warm-core." It sounds exactly like what it is. There is cold air at the center of the storm in a cold-core system, while a warm-core system has warm air at the center. Subtropical storms also have the majority of their thunderstorms ~100 miles from the center of circulation.

    Extratropical
    While extratropical storms are NOT named, hurricanes that survive to reach latitudes of 40 degrees or more often transition to extratropical storms. What this is is merely a cold-core system with a front attached to it. Nor'easters that strike New England in the winter are examples of extratropical systems.

    Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
    I know you look at this and think, whaaa? What does the Sahara have to do with anything? Well, the Saharan Air Layer is well, a layer of air, but it is also extremely dry. It protrudes into the eastern Atlantic. It carries a lot of dust within it. Hurricanes need a relatively wet environment to form/survive, and the SAL can interfere with that process. Dust also reflects a lot of the sun's rays, dropping sea surface temperatures by as much as 1 degree Celsius. This causes obvious problems for hurricanes. The SAL disrupts hurricanes.

    Cape Verde Season
    The Cape Verde Season is named after the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. Lasting typically from August through early October, this is the time of year thunderstorm clusters that come off Africa form tropical systems. These are casually called Cape Verde storms.

    Cape Verde Storm
    Tropical Systems that start off as thunderstorm clusters that come off the African Coast. Many of the strongest storms in the Atlantic Basin were Cape Verde storms. They spend a long time over the warm waters of the Tropical Atlantic before reaching the Americas giving them plenty of time to gain strength.

    Eye Wall
    The region immediately surrounding the eye. This is where the hurricane's strongest winds are found.

    Central Dense Overcast
    The core of the storm which is solid clouds.

    Spiral Bands
    "Arms" of a tropical system. These bands of clouds and rain wrap around the system. It's common for supercells to form within these bands and thus are where most of the tornadoes a landfalling system generates are located.

    Outflow
    The exhaust system of the hurricane if you will. Hurricanes draw tremendous amounts of air upwards and it needs to go somewhere. Strong, long-lived hurricanes have outflow where the air escapes horizontally away from the storm. This is usually seen as fibrous cirrus clouds rotating clockwise around the storm. Without outflow, the only place the air can go is down, which can choke off the storm's updrafts. Wind sheer can cut off outflow, which is another reason is weakens tropical systems.

    Eye Wall Replacement
    A process within very strong hurricanes in which the eye disappears and then reappears. This is usually accompanies with temporary weakening and then restrengthening of the hurricane.

    Rapid Intensification
    As the term suggests, it's the system strengthening a lot over a short period of time. This process has gained more attention in recent years.


    Inter(T)ropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
    The Intertropical Convergence Zone is where the two most equatorial Hadley Cells meet. What does this mean? A lot of warm air is being pushed down into a small area of air. This destabilizes the atmosphere and helps to create thunderstorms. Do you see satellite pictures where there are thunderstorms over the tropics in a big long line? This is the ITCZ. The ITCZ is below the region of development for hurricanes. So how do they affect hurricane seasons? A low pressure system can spin up out of the ITCZ and become a tropical cyclone.

    Useful Links
    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html - the Navy's hurricane page. This is where invests are announced.
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - the National Hurricane Center
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html - Jeff Master's tropical weather observations blog at Weather Underground
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane - The Wikipedia page about hurricanes. Generally more detailed than my summary above.
    http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/ - The Central Pacific Hurricane Center
    http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ - The Joint Typhoon Warning Center
    http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/ - The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia, responsible for naming storms within the Australian region.
    http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/ - The Japan Meteorological Agency, in charge of naming storms in the Western Pacific.
    http://www.met.gov.fj/ - Fiji Meteorological Service, in charge of naming storms in the Southern Pacific
    http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/ -- Reunion, in charge of naming storms in the Southwestern Indian Ocean (also, in French, which shouldn't be a problem for Evil Figment, but...)
    http://www.tropicwx.com/ -- Satellite imaging for Eastern Pacific and Atlantic, courtesy of Rayne ^^

    Some of this is adapted from posts by Evil Figment and Big Al.

    also, sorry this post is so lengthy ..
    Last edited by hurristat; 6th September 2011 at 03:38 PM.

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    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    And so it begins: we have the first and second invest of the year.

    Quote Originally Posted by JTWC
    the area of convection previously located near 16.8s 169.6e is now located near 16.9s 170.0e, approximately 115nm east-northeast of port villa, Vanuatu. Animated multi-spectral imagery shows convection increasing and consolidating over the low level circulation center (LLCC). The nearest reporting station, bauerfield efate, Vanuatu, is reporting 03 mb 24 hr pressure falls. Although the LLCC has become better defined and convection has increased, a 100252z AMSU-b image indicates deep convection remains confined to the northern side of the system. The 100000z upper level streamline analysis indicates that the system exists in a region of broad diffluence and an average of 10 kts of vertical windshear. Water vapor animation indicates poleward outflow has improved and there is now radial outflow over the system. Satellite data reports sea surface temperature of 29 degrees celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 kts. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 996mb. The potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to fair.
    If this were to become a tropical storm, it would be named "Vania"

    Quote Originally Posted by JTWC
    the area of convection previously located near 15.0s 111.3e is now located near 15.1s 111.1e approximately 440 nm north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Animated infrared imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection displaced to the western semi Circle. This is also evident on a 101126z AMSU-b microwave image. The convection is being sheared westward in response to 30 kts of easterly vertical wind shear (vws). A 101348z ascat pass reveals a well-developed LLCC with Max 30-kt winds in the northern periphery of the LLCC. The system lies in an active monsoon trough on the equatorward side of the subtropical ridge. A sharp decrease in vws exists between 15 and 17 degrees south latitude and any southward movement of the system would bring it into significantly more favorable conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the region are 29-30 degrees celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 996 mb. Due to the increased low level winds and the two numeric models forecasting a southerly track, the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours is upgraded to fair.
    This would be named "Vince".

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    UPDATE:

    The invest in the Southern Pacific has strengthened into a tropical storm (by the JTWC standards), but Fiji hasn't recognized it as a storm yet, so it's being carried as Tropical Storm 5-P. It's centred at 19.0S, 168.9E, with maximum 1-min sustained wind speeds of 40 mph.
    Last edited by hurristat; 11th January 2011 at 05:13 PM.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    UPDATE:

    Tropical Storm 5-P has been named by Suva -- Tropical Storm Vania. It's centred at 19.6S 168.8E -- and close to reaching Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, at 60 kt. It's expected to strengthen into a Category 1 Cyclone and slam into the French territory island of New Caledonia.

    The other invest I mentioned has strengthened into Tropical Storm Vince (named by the BoM). It's only at 40 kt, but it's also expected to strengthen into a Category 1 Cyclone. It's going to come close to the Western Australian coast, but turn away before hitting.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Oh wow, you started this season off early Hurristat ^^

    As usual I'd like to share this link which is home to a comprehensive array of Atlantic and Gulf infrared and visible satellite radars along with various other maps such as sea surface temps and wind speeds.

    -In Simple Harmony-

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Quote Originally Posted by Rayne View Post
    Oh wow, you started this season off early Hurristat ^^
    I figured that we should probably expand the discussion to more than merely the Atlantic (considering BMGf is a global website)

    As usual I'd like to share this link which is home to a comprehensive array of Atlantic and Gulf infrared and visible satellite radars along with various other maps such as sea surface temps and wind speeds.
    Added to the intro post at the bottom with the rest of the links.

    update on Vince and Vania:

    Fortunately, neither of them are expected to strengthen into a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale anymore, but Vania is still a strong tropical storm and is starting to impact New Caledonia. Vince is a weak tropical storm and is being sheared to death right now, although it should emerge in a more conducive environment soon.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Wasn't really paying attention to the invests with Vince and Vania active, and so I was surprised when this happened:

    Tropical Storm Zelia has formed, and is expected to strengthen to a Category 1 soon. It is centred at 13.1S and 152.0E, and will move Southeast quickly.

    Vania is moving very slowly over New Caledonia at the moment, and Vince never really escaped wind shear, and is being sheared to death at this very moment.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Tropical Storms Vince and Vania have dissipated, but Vania has strengthened into a Category 2 Cyclone (on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and has entered the Southern Pacific region -- fortunately, it looks like it will be avoiding land.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Zelia is long gone, but a new storm, Tropical Storm 8-P, has formed in the Western Hemisphere. Here's the advisory from the JTWC:

    Quote Originally Posted by JTWC
    Tropical cyclone (tc) 08p located approximately 155 nm west-northwest of Pago Pago, has tracked east-northeast at 08 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and recent microwave imagery (220649z 37h trmm and 220755z 91h ssmis) depict tightly curved convective banding wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center (LLCC) with a majority of the deep convection along the northeastern periphery of the system. There is good confidence in the current position based on the aforementioned microwave images, which depict a position slightly north of what was previously forecast. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 35 to 45 knots from knes, pgtw, and phfo. Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of strong diffluence aloft and low (>10 knots) vertical wind shear. The system is currently tracking along the southern periphery of the near equatorial ridge and is forecast to recurve to the southwest as the subtropical ridge builds to the south and becomes the dominate steering mechanism. Based on the current forecast track, tc 08p is expected to track over American Samoa within the next 12 to 36 hours and gradually intensify. After tau 72, the system is forecast to recurve back to the southeast ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and begin extra-tropical transition (et) by tau 96. Tc 08p is expected to complete et by tau 120, but may dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone prior to completing et as it tracks over cooler sst's and unfavorable ocean heat content values poleward of 25 degrees south. Numerical model guidance is in fair agreement, with the exception of GFS, which depicts a later turn to the southwest and then tracks the system westward toward New Caledonia. This westward track does not seem likely given the amplitude of the approaching mid-latitude trough in the later Taus, therefore this forecast is slightly east of model consensus. Maximum significant wave height at 220600z is 14 feet. Next warnings at 222100z and 230900z.
    It looks like Fiji, Tonga, and American Samoa are threatened by this storm, the next in line being American Samoa. If this becomes named, it will be named "Wilma".

    UPDATE: since this was posted, it has been named Wilma.
    Last edited by hurristat; 22nd January 2011 at 03:37 PM.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    The Pacific is really cranking them out, Tropical Storm Anthony has formed in Australia's area of responsibility.

    Both Anthony and Wilma are expected to strengthen into Cyclones.

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Oh man did Wilma blow up -- It hit Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and hit Tonga at Category 3.

    Here's a pic:


    Anthony has fizzled, but Bianca has formed on the West side of Australia, and it's expected to impact much of the Western Coast of Australia.

    There are a couple of areas that could form in the Pacific near Queensland and make landfall (!)

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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Wilma's almost entirely fizzled now -- it got whacked by wind shear. But Bianca is about to strengthen into a Category 3, so it all balances out. Fortunately, it looks like Bianca's staying offshore of Australia.

  13. #13
    追放されたバカ
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    I guess that this explains your username.

  14. #14
    megane shota hurristat's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    Over the last couple of days, Bianca and Wilma have died (after both hitting Cat 4), Anthony quickly reformed before making landfall in Queensland (!), and Yasi formed in the Pacific and is racing towards Queensland (!), and is expected to make landfall as a Cat. 4 (!!!)

    I hope everyone in Queensland will be okay.

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    ~Music and words~ M the Gate's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2011 Tropical Cyclones

    OH, WONDERFUL, RIGHT WHERE I LIVE.

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