Mafia: Witchhunt -- GAME OVER: MAFIA WIN 12/15/12 - Page 17

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Thread: Witchhunt -- GAME OVER: MAFIA WIN 12/15/12

  1. #241
    LVL 7 Master Mew's Avatar
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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Regarding the whole, "KidBeano is being framed by the Werewolf," theory, honest question:

    If KidBeano is, in fact, the Sheriff... why would the Werewolf want to frame him? Seems like lynching KidBeano would be undesirable to the Werewolf, since it denies the Werewolf a protection-inducing meal later in the game.

    In other words, I would assume the Werewolf wouldn't want to lynch anyone who claims, since if their claim is true, he can eat them later to gain protection.

    Obviously, the Werewolf wouldn't know if KidBeano's claim were true or not, but I don't understand why the Werewolf would try to incriminate a potential meal...?

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Yeah, that's actually true. ^^; I don't know what I was thinking honestly - now that you mentioned that, it does seem rather illogical.

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Pichuboy, you're going off the assumption that the doctor is still around and will protect Rio. The chance that the doctor has already died is like 1/6 (very broadly since I didn't factor in everything) which isn't particularly high (higher than the chances of lynching Mijz though) but it still may have happened and then Rio can't get protection at all. I don't believe you're mafia at all since you haven't been counterclaimed but your voting was anti-town, or at least it wasn't the best logic at all. I understand why you think one clear is perhaps better than not having a clear, but we would have also lost a town member if the werewolf hadn't gotten in there first, and even without Mijz having died, your Sheriff report was surely enough to believe that Rio was town since Mijz was pretty much likely confirmed so lynching Mijz would have been a waste. I know nobody was 100% clear but like 98% or whatever is pretty much as clear as you're ever going to get in a mafia game.

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    I really don't trust KidBeano right now. I've seen him play and known him for quite a while. While it's meta, it just doesn't sit well with me that he's suddenly this rash. However, this still pretty much clears Rio. And the fact that he claimed Sheriff and pretty much gave the wolf a second meal was pretty stupid, if you ask me. If anyone's a lover with the wolf/puppet, it's KidBeano. That's all.

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    I claimed because I was getting lynched. If you were also keeping up with the game, you'd have seen something that proved I was Sheriff. Not going to point it out unless you honestly absolutely can't see it, but I'll just say reread the roles.

    I still feel like I'm going in circles. Yes, it's true the Doctor may have died, but let's assume it wasn't Kyouhei!, because let's assume he would have claimed to save himself. That only leaves a 1 - (16/17 * 14/15) chance, which is ~12%. That's basically the same odds as a Townie being lovered with a Werewolf - if you're not willing to assume that, then you're not willing to assume the Doctor is dead.

    If the Mafia did kill the Doctor, then if I've got the role descriptions right, they will know it by tonight, so there's not a lot we can do. However, what it does tell us is that if Rio dies alone, then it's highly likely that one of FA and Andrea was the Doctor.
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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Quote Originally Posted by KidBeano View Post
    I claimed because I was getting lynched. If you were also keeping up with the game, you'd have seen something that proved I was Sheriff. Not going to point it out unless you honestly absolutely can't see it, but I'll just say reread the roles.
    I've been, "keeping up with the game," but I don't recall you being confirmed as the Sheriff. Unless you just can't be bothered to defend yourself, would it be too much trouble to remind us when that happened?

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Well I think the informant knows the identity of either the sheriff or the marshal, so there's a 50/50 chance that the informant knows whether KidBeano is the real sheriff or not. I'm willing to bet the informant and marshal are still around. But besides that, there's no definitive proof whether anyone's really whatever they say they are, unless they're roles that are uh, "testable."

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Quote Originally Posted by Master Mew View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KidBeano View Post
    I claimed because I was getting lynched. If you were also keeping up with the game, you'd have seen something that proved I was Sheriff. Not going to point it out unless you honestly absolutely can't see it, but I'll just say reread the roles.
    I've been, "keeping up with the game," but I don't recall you being confirmed as the Sheriff. Unless you just can't be bothered to defend yourself, would it be too much trouble to remind us when that happened?
    Hint: Soulmaster

    Hint: The only scenario in which I would be lying is if Soulmaster is lying too, which would mean that two particular roles (work them out) are already dead, which would be ~1.8% chance if I've done the maths right (basically add the chances of each possible permutation of deaths using 'Role X', 'Role Y' and 'other'). Now we get into the discussion of when a probability is small enough to be considered negligible, because you guys were quick to dismiss a 0.6% chance, so would you really argue 1.2% is that much more?
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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Very nice PB. I wasn't even trying. But yes that is my role and I can clear PB as being the Sheriff.

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Oh and for the record I know you clear, not saying how at this moment though.
    Oh, right - I sort of overlooked that.

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Quote Originally Posted by KidBeano View Post
    Now we get into the discussion of when a probability is small enough to be considered negligible, because you guys were quick to dismiss a 0.6% chance, so would you really argue 1.2% is that much more?
    Or we could argue the inverse: You were quick to argue that 0.6% was plausible, so that would make the likelihood of you and Soulmaster lying doubly-so.

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Its likely that they could be lying, but that would mean that the real Informant and Sheriff are dead - wouldn't the real Sheriff and/or Informant counterclaim? FA was executed, so we don't know her role, but could it really just so happen that Andrea Luminosity and Kyouhei! are the Informant and the Sheriff? I mean, there's always that chance, but it'd be risky for both Soulmaster and KidBeano to claim like that, if they happen to be the mafia.

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Quote Originally Posted by Elysion View Post
    Its likely that they could be lying, but that would mean that the real Informant and Sheriff are dead - wouldn't the real Sheriff and/or Informant counterclaim? FA was executed, so we don't know her role, but could it really just so happen that Andrea Luminosity and Kyouhei! are the Informant and the Sheriff? I mean, there's always that chance, but it'd be risky for both Soulmaster and KidBeano to claim like that, if they happen to be the mafia.
    Yes, it would. I'm not actually suggesting that scenario. KidBeano took a shot at us over the Mijz controversy, so I shot back. All in good fun, KB.

    It would be wise for the actual roles to counterclaim, but not everyone plays the same way - we can't assume everyone would react the same way that we would, particularly in a game where counterclaiming carries high risk (Werewolf) and little reward (no reveal upon lynching the original claim).

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    That's basically the same odds as a Townie being lovered with a Werewolf - if you're not willing to assume that, then you're not willing to assume the Doctor is dead.

    Actually I wasn't opposed to that, it was Mijzelffan in particular. And I brought up those odds since it's relatively the same as what we had all calculated beforehand, yet you were pushing for a lynch at those odds, but don't seem to believe that the doctor has died. Double standards also.

    In any case, whilst I don't understand your logic, I'm not particular suspicious of you and I think we should be looking at other people.

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    Default Re: Witchhunt - DAY 3 - 11/18/12

    Phase over, update pending.

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