Thread: Witchhunt -- GAME OVER: MAFIA WIN 12/15/12

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Unless the Marshal is already dead. If you were sided with the Wolf, you'd know FA's role by now. And I don't want this to go back into statistics - this is just a clear cut "It's not foolproof because".

Lynching you, as I've said, is foolproof. Unless you're going to suddenly spring on us you're Lovers with Rio Kamishiro?

If your definition of foolproof is "contributes literally nothing to the town besides proving someone is not a lover", then yeah, foolproof.

...

If you are not a lover, then you are definite town. Ergo, Rio will be definite town. I thought that much was obvious.

As far as you've just said, you're not a lover, so by your death, you would be proving someone else innocent. The only reason you should have a problem with that is if it wouldn't actually turn out like that, which would imply you are a lover, but you've just claimed you're not, which would imply that if you WERE a lover, it's an anti-town pairing that you would not be willing to disclose.

Get it?

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Unless the Marshal is already dead. If you were sided with the Wolf, you'd know FA's role by now. And I don't want this to go back into statistics - this is just a clear cut "It's not foolproof because".

Lynching you, as I've said, is foolproof. Unless you're going to suddenly spring on us you're Lovers with Rio Kamishiro?

If your definition of foolproof is "contributes literally nothing to the town besides proving someone is not a lover", then yeah, foolproof.

...

If you are not a lover, then you are definite town. Ergo, Rio will be definite town. I thought that much was obvious.

As far as you've just said, you're not a lover, so by your death, you would be proving someone else innocent. The only reason you should have a problem with that is if it wouldn't actually turn out like that, which would imply you are a lover, but you've just claimed you're not, which would imply that if you WERE a lover, it's an anti-town pairing that you would not be willing to disclose.

Get it?

Or maybe he thinks that knowingly making a mislynch is a bad idea? (Hint: he's right)

Originally Posted by TheMissingno.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Unless the Marshal is already dead. If you were sided with the Wolf, you'd know FA's role by now. And I don't want this to go back into statistics - this is just a clear cut "It's not foolproof because".

Lynching you, as I've said, is foolproof. Unless you're going to suddenly spring on us you're Lovers with Rio Kamishiro?

If your definition of foolproof is "contributes literally nothing to the town besides proving someone is not a lover", then yeah, foolproof.

...

If you are not a lover, then you are definite town. Ergo, Rio will be definite town. I thought that much was obvious.

As far as you've just said, you're not a lover, so by your death, you would be proving someone else innocent. The only reason you should have a problem with that is if it wouldn't actually turn out like that, which would imply you are a lover, but you've just claimed you're not, which would imply that if you WERE a lover, it's an anti-town pairing that you would not be willing to disclose.

Get it?

Or maybe he thinks that knowingly making a mislynch is a bad idea? (Hint: he's right)

Or maybe he's not clear and that's where "knowingly making a mislynch" falls through?

Honestly the fact that you checked Mijz and found out that he was on the same side as Rio gives even LESS chance that he is aligned with the werewolves since it would mean that Rio would have to be the werewolf or the puppet (I think?), so why on earth were you still voting him after receiving that information?

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Or maybe he's not clear and that's where "knowingly making a mislynch" falls through?

He's more clear than you are at this point brothah.

Croag brings up a good point, PB. The werewolf has his own faction. Unless you had the insane luck of uncovering both the wolf and his puppet on the same go, which, as you and Mijz both painstakingly explained through minute probability, neither Rio nor Mijz are wolf. Sorry, I also have a bit of a difficult time with lynching Mijz just to find out if he's lovers with the werewolf, seeing as everyone who is not mafia has an equal chance of being partnered with him. Or the werewolf, more likely, isn't partnered with anyone at all.

Mijz not getting eaten is puzzling, but there's always the chance the werewolf wasn't around for last night phase.

Vote: KidBeano

I'm really quite curious why you're so fixated on Mijz and the werewolf than the mafia, who is the greater threat to all of us because unlike the werewolf, they don't have to know our roles before killing us.

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

Did you fail maths in high school by any chance? These are perfectly comparable. The odds of me turning up baddie when lynched is ~1% rounded up. The odds of literally anyone else turning up baddie when lynched is about 20%.

The odds are THE SAME for both of you, Mijz - they would only be different if we knew your roleclaim was true. Weirdly, KidBeano seems certain that it is and has latched onto this improbable Lovers scenario, but don't assume we're all on board with that theory.

I don't believe your roleclaim because the Werewolf didn't eat you, and waiting for you to be lynched would net him no benefit - unless I'm misunderstanding the setup, he had no reason not to test your roleclaim.

Originally Posted by Hitomi

Croag brings up a good point, PB. The werewolf has his own faction. Unless you had the insane luck of uncovering both the wolf and his puppet on the same go, which, as you and Mijz both painstakingly explained through minute probability, neither Rio nor Mijz are wolf. Sorry, I also have a bit of a difficult time with lynching Mijz just to find out if he's lovers with the werewolf, seeing as everyone who is not mafia has an equal chance of being partnered with him. Or the werewolf, more likely, isn't partnered with anyone at all.

Mijz not getting eaten is puzzling, but there's always the chance the werewolf wasn't around for last night phase.

Vote: KidBeano

I'm really quite curious why you're so fixated on Mijz and the werewolf than the mafia, who is the greater threat to all of us because unlike the werewolf, they don't have to know our roles before killing us.

... so many things wrong with this post.

a) MIJZ IS NOT THE WEREWOLF. Why do you insist on saying that I'm saying Mijz is the WW? I'm not. I've not uncovered the WW and the Puppet it one go. Please, get a grasp on the situation.

b) >claims Sheriff
>gets voted

If you're going to defend Mijz with the "it's unlikely he's sided with the Werewolf" thing, then voting for me is just plain nonsensical, because you can apply that to me as well.

There was a reason I picked Rio, like I said - he was the first to unvote Mijz, and it literally just took Mijz's claim. It was such a quick unvote. And his "I doubt anyone will counterclaim". Um, how is Rio supposed to know who would or wouldn't counterclaim?

I could've easily picked Akuraito as well, but Rio was the better choice.

Also, I'll reiterate: the Werewolf eats during the Day Phase. Not the Night Phase.

---

You're all misunderstanding the situation completely, so I'm done not being patronising.

In this post, I accuse Mijz of being scummy. I do not mention the Werewolf at this point, only point out scummy things. Mijz then has a strop and says "omg why are you voting me just for being active" (paraphrased, but still words to that effect). People vote him.

Mijz then claims and everyone starts derping and saying "he must be clear then". I then explain how he is not clear, and so continue to try and pursue a lynch on him. Note how he still has not rebutted any of what I said in my first post.

Night comes, and Mijz is not eaten. There are plenty of reasons, one of which supports my lovers idea. So, it's still a potential theory.

Day comes, and I vote Mijz for all reasons stated previously. I now have the information Mijz is on the same faction as Rio. Lynching Mijz will now either clear Rio, or lynch the Werewolf. This is then a win/win scenario. Mijz attempts to defend himself only using statistics - he STILL hasn't addressed any of my points in my post, despite me referencing it several times.

And suddenly everyone derps again and thinks I'm trying to lynch him solely for the possibility he might be Wolf, which is untrue, it's just a factor.

---

SO, now that I've explained myself and also how lynching Mijzelffan is the best option (we either get Rio as 100% clear, or we lynch two wolf-sided people), can we please do it? Because NO-ONE IS OFFERING ANY ALTERNATIVES. Lynching Mijz is WIN/WIN.

---

@Master Mew (because you ninja'd me and i can't be bothered quoting) *deep breath* The Bulletproof in this game is permanent until only 1 mafia remains. So, the simple fact that FA died means she can't have been BP. The real BP would have counterclaimed if Mijz wasn't BP. Conclusion: Mijz is BP.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

As far as you've just said, you're not a lover, so by your death, you would be proving someone else innocent. The only reason you should have a problem with that is if it wouldn't actually turn out like that, which would imply you are a lover, but you've just claimed you're not, which would imply that if you WERE a lover, it's an anti-town pairing that you would not be willing to disclose.

Get it?

It's not as though anyone can really blame Mijzelffan for not wanting to get himself lynched on purpose to prove me innocent... I mean, right now, that doesn't seem like a good idea to do. You seem a little too eager to get rid of him.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

@Master Mew (because you ninja'd me and i can't be bothered quoting) *deep breath* The Bulletproof in this game is permanent until only 1 mafia remains. So, the simple fact that FA died means she can't have been BP. The real BP would have counterclaimed if Mijz wasn't BP. Conclusion: Mijz is BP.

OR... the real Bulletproof didn't claim because...

A.) It would attract a Werewolf kill or piercing kill.
B.) It would be unnecessary, since everyone would know the next day if Mijz's claim was false because the Werewolf would kill him.

@KidBeano; How does Rio as 100% clear help anything? Outside communication is against the rules, so no one can claim to her. And even if being 100% confirmed has any benefits at all (I fail to see them), the mafia can just piercing kill her or the wolf can eat her immediatly after I'm lynched, putting everything back to square one minus two innocent lives.

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

@KidBeano; How does Rio as 100% clear help anything? Outside communication is against the rules, so no one can claim to her. And even if being 100% confirmed has any benefits at all (I fail to see them), the mafia can just piercing kill her or the wolf can eat her immediatly after I'm lynched, putting everything back to square one minus two innocent lives.

Clears have more use than just receiving claims. We can be sure that Rio's judgement isn't a mafia judgement, and that everything she says is her opinion and not a -what-the-town-want-to-hear opinion. For the piercing kill, the mafia have to sacrifice one of their members, which puts them at a disadvantage. Let's not forget Kyo could've been mafia, and so for all we know they could already be down one and sacrificing would put them down even more. And how, pray, can the wolf eat her if they don't know her role? Obviously the clear doesn't claim outloud - we wait until later in the game, and then if the clear is still alive, they claim last. That way, there's the chance for a mafia member to unknowingly counterclaim them.

Town with clear > Town without clear. Again, you have no reason to be against this, as it is helping the town whatever the outcome of your lynch.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Day comes, and I vote Mijz for all reasons stated previously. I now have the information Mijz is on the same faction as Rio. Lynching Mijz will now either clear Rio, or lynch the Werewolf. This is then a win/win scenario.

Umm, except for the fact that we've had a mislynch! Your entire argument falls under the assumption that Mij is just some useless player who can be of no benefit to the game if kept alive. Why do you think clearing a townie justifies a mislynch? Even if Rio is cleared, the mafia will probably just make it a point to kill her. Hell even right now if you are telling the truth about your claim, Rio is by definition as clear as Mij, which in my eyes is pretty clear. You're trying to sacrifice a bishop for a pawn here, it makes no sense at all.

I'm no longer even going to entertain your "werewolf's lover" hypothesis, it's far too absurd.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

We can be sure that Rio's judgement isn't a mafia judgement, and that everything she says is her opinion and not a -what-the-town-want-to-hear opinion.

So what? Unless she's the cop it's not like she's exactly more enlightened than the rest of us.

For the piercing kill, the mafia have to sacrifice one of their members, which puts them at a disadvantage. Let's not forget Kyo could've been mafia, and so for all we know they could already be down one and sacrificing would put them down even more. And how, pray, can the wolf eat her if they don't know her role? Obviously the clear doesn't claim outloud - we wait until later in the game, and then if the clear is still alive, they claim last. That way, there's the chance for a mafia member to unknowingly counterclaim them.

Town with clear > Town without clear. Again, you have no reason to be against this, as it is helping the town whatever the outcome of your lynch.

You're assuming the doctor is still alive. If they aren't then the mafia don't even need a piercing kill. Also good rebuttal, and while your claiming plan is good, there is really no reason for me to die for that. I'm pretty much cleared, as I've explained multiple times and multiple people have agreed with, meaning Rio is also pretty much cleared already. There is really no reason to kill me for your plan to be put in motion.

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

You're assuming the doctor is still alive. If they aren't then the mafia don't even need a piercing kill.

Except for the Bulletproof... or did you forget about your own role?