Thread: Witchhunt -- GAME OVER: MAFIA WIN 12/15/12

Originally Posted by Sputnik

@Master Mew;

You can vote, you know. XP It's the day.

I am aware of that, but I'm in no rush to end the Phase. Are you?

I'd like some feedback from others as well, if Mijzelffan is the Wolf then we don't want to waste a lynch.

Well, it could have been as simple as the wolf was inactive for the phase. But there's the possibility that Mijz is the wolf, FinalArcadia was actually Bulletproof and the puppet rolechecked her after she died night 1, giving Mijz a more or less counterclaim-proof claim.

Well, that theory does seem plausible.

But if it's true then it means that we really can't do a thing to Mijzelffan right now. First we would need to find the puppet.

Ok, thank god I'm alive, because now I can do this:

a) Just because someone claims a town-sided role, DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE TOWN ALIGNED. The Lovers were RNG'd randomly from the people in the game - they aren't separate roles. Mijz could easily be Bulletproof who is Lovered with the Werewolf or the Puppet (and so aligned with the Werewolf Faction). Not ONCE after he claimed have I said he could be mafia. I don't doubt his Bulletproof claim. What I AM saying is that claiming and being uncounterclaimed IS NOT PROOF OF ALLIANCE.

Hopefully I've made that clear enough now, because I honestly don't know how else to say it.

b) The Werewolf eats during the day. The fact that Mijz was alive at the beginning of Night 2 meant he hadn't be eaten. Yes, it could be possible that the Werewolf misunderstood his role and attempted to eat during the Night. It could also be possible that, as I've said, Mijz is sided with the Werewolf and so they wouldn't eat him.

---

So now onto my further reasoning for Mijz's lynch:

Originally Posted by Hitomi

Well, it could have been as simple as the wolf was inactive for the phase. But there's the possibility that Mijz is the wolf, FinalArcadia was actually Bulletproof and the puppet rolechecked her after she died night 1, giving Mijz a more or less counterclaim-proof claim.

We don't know whether the Puppet's ability is a Night ability, Day ability, or any-time ability, but that's irrelevant. FA could not have been the Bulletproof and die Night 1 - the mafia didn't use a piercing kill because only one person died (so there was no sacrifice). Adding that and the lack of a counterclaim, let me go on record saying right now Mijzelffan IS the Bulletproof. However, like I've said above, that's not indicative of his alignment, only that we can be sure he isn't mafia.

Now, since we know his role to be Bulletproof, that means we know that if we lynch him, he will die. We won't have any of the no-lynch trickery (of course, we will have to make sure ONLY Mijz is voted for so we don't possibly set off the Gallis). That way, if someone dies alongside him, we will know that he was Lovers with someone. If no-one dies alongside him we can be certain he was town-sided BP and so the Mortician will have no reason to investigate him, and it will be one less lynch to be confused about.

Vote: Mijzelffan

I don't know about Mijzelffan...

Honestly, I'm worried that he may really be a Town allied Bulletproof. I see your logic, and it isn't faulty. The Mafia would be jumping like mad if this lynch goes through, so before I vote for him I'm going to at least need to hear a defense @Mijzelffan;.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Ok, thank god I'm alive, because now I can do this:

a) Just because someone claims a town-sided role, DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE TOWN ALIGNED. The Lovers were RNG'd randomly from the people in the game - they aren't separate roles.

Cool. Already knew that, but thanks.

It's not that we didn't understand that before, it's just that we realize how unlikely it would be for the Bulletproof to be Lovers with the Werewolf - i.e. too unlikely to bet on it at this point. Furthermore: Just because someone isn't counterclaimed doesn't mean their claim is true. If the real bulletproof wasn't facing a lynch, why would they counterclaim Mijz and risking a Werewolf kill or piercing kill?

If no-one dies alongside him we can be certain he was town-sided BP and so the Mortician will have no reason to investigate him, and it will be one less lynch to be confused about.

This was a very strange thing to say - do you not want the Mortician to check Mijzelffan?

Originally Posted by Master Mew

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Ok, thank god I'm alive, because now I can do this:

a) Just because someone claims a town-sided role, DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE TOWN ALIGNED. The Lovers were RNG'd randomly from the people in the game - they aren't separate roles.

Cool. Already knew that, but thanks.

It's not that we didn't understand that before, it's just that we realize how unlikely it would be for the Bulletproof to be Lovers with the Werewolf - i.e. too unlikely to bet on it at this point. Furthermore: Just because someone isn't counterclaimed doesn't mean their claim is true. If the real bulletproof wasn't facing a lynch, why would they counterclaim Mijz and risking a Werewolf kill or piercing kill?

If no-one dies alongside him we can be certain he was town-sided BP and so the Mortician will have no reason to investigate him, and it will be one less lynch to be confused about.

This was a very strange thing to say - do you not want the Mortician to check Mijzelffan?

Some people didn't understand this before, since they were saying "Mijz is uncc'd so he's obviously town". It's kinda the whole point people unvoted him yesterday.

Every Lover combination has an equal chance of happening - using "it's so unlikely so it's obviously not happened" for this is wrong. If we're going to be using the 'unlikely' card, then for every single person, it's 'unlikely' they're mafia, so obviously they're town. ._.

They would counterclaim because it would be idiotic not to. I'm sorry, but if someone claims your role in an open setup, you counterclaim. You don't let them go waltzing around uncc'd.

I didn't say that - I said that if we lynched Mijzelffan and he's the only one to die, his role is obvious (again, because if he wasn't BP, he would have been counterclaimed) so it's pretty redundant for the Mortician to investigate him. The Mortician can investigate him if he really wants, and actually in retrospect, they should have already investigated Kyouhei!, so there's no harm in it. The Mortician only really has to make a decision when there's more than one death due to a lynch.

At the end of the day, I don't see anyone else offering any alternatives. Whatever happens with this lynch, we will find out something. It's better than just shooting randomly at someone and hoping for the best - this is a reasoned lynch.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

The Mortician can investigate him if he really wants, and actually in retrospect, they should have already investigated Kyouhei!, so there's no harm in it. The Mortician only really has to make a decision when there's more than one death due to a lynch.

To clarify: The Mortician and Bookkeeper receive the roles of all players to die in their respective phases.

Maybe the werewolf thinks it's funny the mafia can't kill me and likes to keep me alive because of that. Werewolf and mafia are enemies as well. Maybe he'd rather see me lynched and keep the puppet and himself safe for another day. Who knows.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Ok, thank god I'm alive, because now I can do this:

a) Just because someone claims a town-sided role, DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE TOWN ALIGNED. The Lovers were RNG'd randomly from the people in the game - they aren't separate roles. Mijz could easily be Bulletproof who is Lovered with the Werewolf or the Puppet (and so aligned with the Werewolf Faction). Not ONCE after he claimed have I said he could be mafia. I don't doubt his Bulletproof claim. What I AM saying is that claiming and being uncounterclaimed IS NOT PROOF OF ALLIANCE.

Hopefully I've made that clear enough now, because I honestly don't know how else to say it.

Mijzelffan IS the Bulletproof. However, like I've said above, that's not indicative of his alignment, only that we can be sure he isn't mafia.

Now, since we know his role to be Bulletproof, that means we know that if we lynch him, he will die. We won't have any of the no-lynch trickery (of course, we will have to make sure ONLY Mijz is voted for so we don't possibly set off the Gallis). That way, if someone dies alongside him, we will know that he was Lovers with someone. If no-one dies alongside him we can be certain he was town-sided BP and so the Mortician will have no reason to investigate him, and it will be one less lynch to be confused about.

Vote: Mijzelffan

Let's go with your theory. Lover 1 is RNG'd. He has to be me. 1 in 17 chance. Lover 2 is RNG'd. He has to be werewolf or puppet. 2 in 17 chance. 1/17×2/17 = ~0,69% chance. Mafia can not be lovers, the OP states so. Meaning that even though you admit I am probably the bulletproof like I claim, you still think those 0.69% are worth risking my life for.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Every Lover combination has an equal chance of happening - using "it's so unlikely so it's obviously not happened" for this is wrong. If we're going to be using the 'unlikely' card, then for every single person, it's 'unlikely' they're mafia, so obviously they're town. ._.

99.31% is pretty unlikely.

At the end of the day, I don't see anyone else offering any alternatives. Whatever happens with this lynch, we will find out something. It's better than just shooting randomly at someone and hoping for the best - this is a reasoned lynch.

It is not a reasoned lynch, this is taking your life savings to the casino and putting it all on square 3 at the roulette hoping you strike lucky.

No wait actually, doing that has a 2.7% chance of working out (1/37), which has three times more chance of happening than the chance that I'm a werewolf lover.

vote: pichuboy

This is also a nice time to point out lynching someone at random has at least (assuming the three dead people so far were baddies) 4/19 = 21% chance of hitting a mafioso or puppet, about 30 times as much chance of being succesful in getting rid of a baddie than lynching me has.

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

Maybe the werewolf thinks it's funny the mafia can't kill me and likes to keep me alive because of that. Werewolf and mafia are enemies as well. Maybe he'd rather see me lynched and keep the puppet and himself safe for another day.

Eating you WOULD have kept him and his puppet safe for another day.

This is also a nice time to point out lynching someone at random has at least (assuming the three dead people so far were baddies) 4/19 = 21% chance of hitting a mafioso or puppet, about 30 times as much chance of being succesful in getting rid of a baddie than lynching me has.

Your statistics were good up to this point, but that last bit is categorically false. You're comparing the odds of KidBeano being anti-town to the odds of you being Lovers with the Werewolf - two entirely different scenarios. The "chance of being successful in getting rid of a baddie," is the same for lynching either of you.

Surely you knew that.

Vote: Mijzelffan

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

Maybe the werewolf thinks it's funny the mafia can't kill me and likes to keep me alive because of that. Werewolf and mafia are enemies as well. Maybe he'd rather see me lynched and keep the puppet and himself safe for another day. Who knows.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Ok, thank god I'm alive, because now I can do this:

a) Just because someone claims a town-sided role, DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE TOWN ALIGNED. The Lovers were RNG'd randomly from the people in the game - they aren't separate roles. Mijz could easily be Bulletproof who is Lovered with the Werewolf or the Puppet (and so aligned with the Werewolf Faction). Not ONCE after he claimed have I said he could be mafia. I don't doubt his Bulletproof claim. What I AM saying is that claiming and being uncounterclaimed IS NOT PROOF OF ALLIANCE.

Hopefully I've made that clear enough now, because I honestly don't know how else to say it.

Mijzelffan IS the Bulletproof. However, like I've said above, that's not indicative of his alignment, only that we can be sure he isn't mafia.

Now, since we know his role to be Bulletproof, that means we know that if we lynch him, he will die. We won't have any of the no-lynch trickery (of course, we will have to make sure ONLY Mijz is voted for so we don't possibly set off the Gallis). That way, if someone dies alongside him, we will know that he was Lovers with someone. If no-one dies alongside him we can be certain he was town-sided BP and so the Mortician will have no reason to investigate him, and it will be one less lynch to be confused about.

Vote: Mijzelffan

Let's go with your theory. Lover 1 is RNG'd. He has to be me. 1 in 17 chance. Lover 2 is RNG'd. He has to be werewolf or puppet. 2 in 17 chance. 1/17×2/17 = ~0,69% chance. Mafia can not be lovers, the OP states so. Meaning that even though you admit I am probably the bulletproof like I claim, you still think those 0.69% are worth risking my life for.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

Every Lover combination has an equal chance of happening - using "it's so unlikely so it's obviously not happened" for this is wrong. If we're going to be using the 'unlikely' card, then for every single person, it's 'unlikely' they're mafia, so obviously they're town. ._.

99.31% is pretty unlikely.

At the end of the day, I don't see anyone else offering any alternatives. Whatever happens with this lynch, we will find out something. It's better than just shooting randomly at someone and hoping for the best - this is a reasoned lynch.

It is not a reasoned lynch, this is taking your life savings to the casino and putting it all on square 3 at the roulette hoping you strike lucky.

No wait actually, doing that has a 2.7% chance of working out (1/37), which has three times more chance of happening than the chance that I'm a werewolf lover.

vote: pichuboy

This is also a nice time to point out lynching someone at random has at least (assuming the three dead people so far were baddies) 4/19 = 21% chance of hitting a mafioso or puppet, about 30 times as much chance of being succesful in getting rid of a baddie than lynching me has.

The fact alone that you used "2/17" instead of "2/16" (because you can't be Lovers with yourself, so the second would be RNG'd out of the remaining people) discredits your entire argument.

At the beginning of the game, every single permutation of lovers had a 1/17 * 1/16 = ~0.003% chance of happening. There are 16*17 = 272 different permutations (You can then check the validity of it by (1/17 * 1/16) * 272 = 1). Out of these, 16*2 = 32 involve a townie being aligned with the Werewolf, which is (32/272) * 100 ~11.7%. So, at the beginning of the game, there was an 11.7% chance that one of our townies was aligned with the Werewolf.

I know theoretically, order doesn't matter, but as far as I can tell, that shouldn't make a difference to the final percentage.

As I've already said, we lynch you, and we get information whatever happens. We lynch anybody else, and we're left floundering about.

---

Anyway, that's good to hear about the Mortician then. Maybe not so much with the Bookkeeper, though.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

The fact alone that you used "2/17" instead of "2/16" (because you can't be Lovers with yourself, so the second would be RNG'd out of the remaining people) discredits your entire argument.

That is absurd, I'm sorry. To discredit his argument because of one little mistake like that is frankly silly. The difference between 0.69% and 0.735% (I'm not even sure this is correct, calculating exact probabilities in mafia games is useless) is so insignificant that you're just clutching for straws to prove him wrong. No matter if the chance is 0.69% or even like, 5%, doesn't mean anything. What does mean something is that it's a very small chance that if it happened in hypothesis testing in statistics it'd be seen as being a biased test because for that to happen randomly is very unlikely.

And since your statistics are also faulty (The number of different combinations of pairings in 17 people is 17 choose 2 which is 136 yet you're using the double of that for some reason), should I therefore discredit your whole argument? No.

edit: Apologies, your working out isn't faulty but you could have just thought of it simply as the chance that the werewolf is one of the two lovers is 2/17 and since the other lover is a townie, the chance a townie is aligned with the werewolf is 2/17 which is 11.7% as you calculated.

Still in any case, to point out you're going to ignore Mijzelffan's entire argument due to a very insignificant error is not in my opinion a valid reason to vote him. He is still correct, the chance that this has happened is very small.

Originally Posted by KidBeano

The fact alone that you used "2/17" instead of "2/16" (because you can't be Lovers with yourself, so the second would be RNG'd out of the remaining people) discredits your entire argument.

Oh wow, a 0.2% difference! That certainly discredits everything I've said so far! Oh wait, only it doesn't.

At the beginning of the game, every single permutation of lovers had a 1/17 * 1/16 = ~0.003% chance of happening. There are 16*17 = 272 different permutations (You can then check the validity of it by (1/17 * 1/16) * 272 = 1). Out of these, 16*2 = 32 involve a townie being aligned with the Werewolf, which is (32/272) * 100 ~11.7%. So, at the beginning of the game, there was an 11.7% chance that one of our townies was aligned with the Werewolf.

I know theoretically, order doesn't matter, but as far as I can tell, that shouldn't make a difference to the final percentage.

That's not really relevant.

As I've already said, we lynch you, and we get information whatever happens. We lynch anybody else, and we're left floundering about.

What information exactly? That you're most likely mafia for trying to lynch me when I inevitably turn up innocent once the mortician checks me? Why not just skip the middle step and lynch you right now?

Originally Posted by Master Mew

Your statistics were good up to this point, but that last bit is categorically false. You're comparing the odds of KidBeano being anti-town to the odds of you being Lovers with the Werewolf - two entirely different scenarios. The "chance of being successful in getting rid of a baddie," is the same for lynching either of you.

Surely you knew that.

Vote: Mijzelffan

Did you fail maths in high school by any chance? These are perfectly comparable. The odds of me turning up baddie when lynched is ~1% rounded up. The odds of literally anyone else turning up baddie when lynched is about 20%. Also I'm not even trying to lynch pichuboy based on that comparison, I'm trying to lynch pichuboy for his ridiculous notion that lynching me would somehow be more helpful than lynching someone at random, while I've just shown you how this is most definitely not the case.

Originally Posted by Croag

Originally Posted by KidBeano

The fact alone that you used "2/17" instead of "2/16" (because you can't be Lovers with yourself, so the second would be RNG'd out of the remaining people) discredits your entire argument.

That is absurd, I'm sorry. To discredit his argument because of one little mistake like that is frankly silly. The difference between 0.69% and 0.735% (I'm not even sure this is correct, calculating exact probabilities in mafia games is useless) is so insignificant that you're just clutching for straws to prove him wrong. No matter if the chance is 0.69% or even like, 5%, doesn't mean anything. What does mean something is that it's a very small chance that if it happened in hypothesis testing in statistics it'd be seen as being a biased test because for that to happen randomly is very unlikely.

That's my bad, I didn't work out the actual percentage and what the difference would be. However, the point still stands that his statistics were wrong.

And since your statistics are also faulty (The number of different combinations of pairings in 17 people is 17 choose 2 which is 136 yet you're using the double of that for some reason), should I therefore discredit your whole argument? No.

edit: Apologies, your working out isn't faulty but you could have just thought of it simply as the chance that the werewolf is one of the two lovers is 2/17 and since the other lover is a townie, the chance a townie is aligned with the werewolf is 2/17 which is 11.7% as you calculated.

Yeah, like I said, I used permutations instead of combinations (which is why I was particular in saying 'permutations' in my working out), and it seems I was right in assuming there was no difference.

Still in any case, to point out you're going to ignore Mijzelffan's entire argument due to a very insignificant error is not in my opinion a valid reason to vote him. He is still correct, the chance that this has happened is very small.

An error is an error. And I've already stated many other reasons to vote him. If we lynch him and he is the sole person to die, we can be sure of his alignment. If we lynch him and someone else dies as well, we can be sure he was a Lover. The mortician can check him, sure, but we don't NEED him to. It's a death where we will have information and the Mortician doesn't need to out himself. Lynch someone random, and all we will know is they weren't Wolf - whether they're mafia or not will be a mystery. Even then, the Mort won't find out until the beginning of Night 4.

The fact that the Werewolf didn't eat him doesn't work in his favour either.

His only defence so far is his claim and then dismissing the chance he could be Lovered with the Werewolf as irrelevant. I don't care WHAT the chance is, it's still a chance. The chance someone got the role they were given is 1/22 - do we then assume that they didn't get that role, because it was a 21/22 chance they got something different? No, because that's a ridiculous assumption.

Also, he's really not got any other reasoning for me to be mafia other than I'm trying to lynch him. If that's not OMGUS, idk what is.

Originally Posted by Mijzelffan

That's not really relevant.

It really is. Every town person had an equal chance of being lovered with the Werewolf faction. Your claim does not change that fact. If every single town member claimed, it would still be each one had an equal chance of being lovered with the Werewolf. By taking the chance to be irrelevant, you are then basically saying "The lovers are town-sided", as you can't use it as a defence for yourself, and then not allow it as a defence for others.

What information exactly? That you're most likely mafia for trying to lynch me when I inevitably turn up innocent once the mortician checks me? Why not just skip the middle step and lynch you right now?

Like I said, omgus. "You're most likely mafia for trying to lynch me". Key bit being "for trying to lynch me".

Did you fail maths in high school by any chance? These are perfectly comparable. The odds of me turning up baddie when lynched is ~1% rounded up. The odds of literally anyone else turning up baddie when lynched is about 20%. Also I'm not even trying to lynch pichuboy based on that comparison, I'm trying to lynch pichuboy for his ridiculous notion that lynching me would somehow be more helpful than lynching someone at random, while I've just shown you how this is most definitely not the case.

Please explain exactly what we would get out of lynching a random person. It's all well and good the chance being higher, but if we can't actually tell whether that chance paid off or not, then it becomes pointless.

if we lynch him and someone else dies, that doesn't mean he's a lover, though

where is you getting that from