Thread: Pokemon Best Wishes! Season 2 Mafia - ENDGAME TOWN AND INDEPENDENT WIN 06/01/13

However, there have been more than a few games where mafia has actually been struck on Day 1, thanks to some slip-ups caused by random voting, or just scummy behavior being readily apparent. A lynch itself may not be necessary to catch such things (though it isn't always a bad thing, for sure), but votes are important, especially to analyze later on. Even seemingly random votes can sometimes be seen to have had meaning behind them, after more pieces fall into place.

VOTE: Fushimi

I know you've been online and all but have yet to post, so any comments on the Day 1 debate?

There's really nothing for me to mention as of yet.

Vote: Shadows

Because of shadows.

Originally Posted by Fushimi

There's really nothing for me to mention as of yet.

No comment on anything? Not on the timeless debate on what is a good course of action on Day 1, or any sort of comment on anyone's reactions to said debate (or anything else, for that matter)?

It'd be great to get even more discussion going, to head into Night 1 with things to look at, so getting opinions out could be useful.

Originally Posted by FinalArcadia

Originally Posted by Fushimi

There's really nothing for me to mention as of yet.

No comment on anything? Not on the timeless debate on what is a good course of action on Day 1, or any sort of comment on anyone's reactions to said debate (or anything else, for that matter)?

It'd be great to get even more discussion going, to head into Night 1 with things to look at, so getting opinions out could be useful.

There's nothing to add to that debate that hasn't been already said. That debate doesn't show much because it's a matter of opinion and play style.

If I find something I'll say it. However, right now there isn't much to look at besides that debate. I'm going to wait a little more to actually add to the discussion. There's still quite a bit of time, so no need to rush.

Originally Posted by Fushimi

There's nothing to add to that debate that hasn't been already said. That debate doesn't show much because it's a matter of opinion and play style.

If I find something I'll say it. However, right now there isn't much to look at besides that debate. I'm going to wait a little more to actually add to the discussion. There's still quite a bit of time, so no need to rush.

I was kind of looking for what your opinion personally was on Day 1 and if anything from that discussion stood out, but eh, fair enough, it is early in the phase.

Okay, for once, I'm going to be serious on day one:

@m0ckingbird20; I don't really know your play style since you're new here (btw, welcome to the Bulbagarden War Room ), but anyway, your actions seem town for the moment, and I agree that most mafia games start with a insanely random day 1...

@Midorikawa; Some of what you said is a bit odd. While I agree that finding slip ups on Day 1 is a good method, wanting to wait until another phase to vote is optimal play for some players, and I don't see it as scummy behavior.

Now for my vote: VOTE: Fynx

Originally Posted by Fynx

Oooh, what a start.

VOTE: Dark Blueberry

Seems like mafia just trying to get an easy post so that they won't be seen as lurking.

A fairly serious discussion was happening, and all you can do is post another random vote? Seems like you're trying to throw off the discussion.

Also, in regards to the bold part, the same could be said for you.

Alright, I know it's early, but ISO time!

Also, I feel another Day 1 commentary on game-theory coming on...

---

Part A:
ISO

@m0ckingbird20

Originally Posted by m0ckingbird20

Well, guys I have no idea about the storyline of the anime except some little things Human told me so any clues are welcome. :)

Fluff-post.

Originally Posted by m0ckingbird20

Originally Posted by Dark Blueberry

LOL You can go ahead and watch the Unova League episodes XDD Let's say you're in for a surprise...

Well I haven't watched ANY Pokemon episodes. Only 2 of the movies... I don't even remember what where the names. I just like the games. Anyway that's not the thread to discuss this.

But seriously now does anyone has any idea, or do we lynch randomly as always?

This is a false dichotomy, we are not compelled to choose between setup analysis and a random lynch. As in most dilemmas, there is a fabulous third option: Scumhunting!

Originally Posted by m0ckingbird20

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

@m0ckingbird20; what do you mean "as always"?

Well in almost all Mafia games at day 1 we start by lynching a person of who we don't have any solid evidence against because of obvious reasons.

I usualy prefer that I vote nobody at day till I see what happens during night 1.

Do you feel that not voting is optimal Town-play? If we put off voting on Day 1, we hand the Mafia a free nightkill and an entire Day Phase to run amok with zero risk of getting caught. I personally find Scum far easier to catch when they're squirming under three or four votes.

Originally Posted by m0ckingbird20

1st - I didn't say we should let day 1 pass. Of course we talk I just say that day 1 lynching usually ends bad.
2nd - Night is a great way to gather info.
3rd - I never lynch randomly. At day 2 we susually have more info than at day 1 which gives us better chances to get a mafia than a town lynched.
4th - I didn't say we should waste strikes but what is better. Strike at day 1 and have a good chance to hit town or strike at day 2 and have abtter chance to avoid friendly fire?

Now the fact that you are so eager to start killing looks regardless if the target is town looks to me like something mafia would do.

So if you think that we should lynch everyday my best bet so far is this.

VOTE: Midorikawa

Voting isn't anti-town, voting is Pro-Town. Also, you've equated voting with killing - she isn't voting you to try to kill you "regardless [if] Town," she's voting you to find out if you're Town. It's called pressure-voting, or possibly a reaction test given the context and, well, your reaction.

If it was a reaction test, I'd wager you're failing it so far.

Originally Posted by m0ckingbird20

Originally Posted by Momoka

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

I don't know where you play mafias but that doesn't always happen.

Was this in reference to his comment on how most Day 1's in mafia start with randomly lynching someone? In his defense, that is for the most part true. Even if a lynch doesn't happen, people do pick random lynch targets.

Thank you.

Originally Posted by Momoka

Day one should be spent trying to find slip ups or start conversation. Waiting for night one and lynching someone randomly who will most likely turn out to be town will give us nothing to go off of.

Are you saying that randomly lynching someone on Day 1 will be a liability because they will most likely be town? If I'm not understanding that correctly, feel free to tell me what you meant. But if that is what you meant, then I disagree. Lynching on Day 1 usually ends up beneficial for the town, since you can observe the action on those who lynched the said townie. Not lynching and waiting for night to pass barely does anything and it usually ends up guiding us back to our troubles on Day 1.

Actually I am teh one who sai dthat we should wait for day 2 to start lynching. And while we may not have anyone lyched to have a strat a lot has been said meanwhile and we have the night results alos whihc if they include a death help a lot. Peopel have said thing and made misteks meanwhile and since we have all that lynching in day 2 is much better.

I am not saying that day 1 lynch is tottaly wrong but people usually do it wring and tthis game is proof. Almost immidiately people went against random targets, Soulmaster, me, Dark Blueberry and I did the smae by going against Midorikawa. Now if we wait before we start voting aven at day 1 this could end better.

UNVOTE: Midorikwa

Yes, if we don't use our votes (read: our most powerful weapons against Scum) until Day 2, this game could end better - for the Scum.

@Dark Blueberry

Originally Posted by Dark Blueberry

LOL You can go ahead and watch the Unova League episodes XDD Let's say you're in for a surprise...

Fluff-post. Now that some votes have been thrown around, do you have any thoughts on the progression of the thread so far?

@Momoka

Originally Posted by Momoka

Eh, VOTE: Soulmaster.

Because of masters.

This looks like a pretty standard RVS (random voting stage) vote. One thing I don't like about it, though: You didn't ask anyone to sheep it.

"Because of masters," just drives home the already obvious point that this vote is random, and basically translates into, "I'm placing this vote here so I can say I voted during RVS, but please don't follow my bandwagon because it has no basis and is probably wrong." It is self-defeating. Even if Soulmaster happens to be Scum, he isn't going to be threatened by this vote because the wagon has no teeth - he will not feel pressured, and he will not scumslip - in fact, he probably won't respond at all. I wouldn't.

Originally Posted by Momoka

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

I don't know where you play mafias but that doesn't always happen.

Was this in reference to his comment on how most Day 1's in mafia start with randomly lynching someone? In his defense, that is for the most part true. Even if a lynch doesn't happen, people do pick random lynch targets.

Day one should be spent trying to find slip ups or start conversation. Waiting for night one and lynching someone randomly who will most likely turn out to be town will give us nothing to go off of.

Are you saying that randomly lynching someone on Day 1 will be a liability because they will most likely be town? If I'm not understanding that correctly, feel free to tell me what you meant. But if that is what you meant, then I disagree. Lynching on Day 1 usually ends up beneficial for the town, since you can observe the action on those who lynched the said townie. Not lynching and waiting for night to pass barely does anything and it usually ends up guiding us back to our troubles on Day 1.

I agree with most of what you said here. One small quibble, though: A "random" lynch on Day 1 usually is a liability to the Town. A random bandwagon, on the other hand, can lead to solid reads on multiple players and help the Town to arrive at a non-random lynch Day 1 - which is fabulously Pro-Town and really needs to happen more often.

@Midorikawa

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

VOTE:mafia because you're all scum

Ew. You're better than this, Midori. This is a safe non-vote that does nothing to maximize the most important scumhunting phase of the game (Day 1, in case that wasn't apparent).

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

@m0ckingbird20; what do you mean "as always"?

Even though I disagree with Mockingbird's statement, I don't really see why you needed to ask him to elaborate - what he meant was fairly clear. It looks like you're eager to start a debate with him - a debate you know you can win.

It's a little opportunistic to jump on something so small, especially given that it did, indeed, spiral into an OMGUS-wall.

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

@m0ckingbird20; I don't know where you play mafias but that doesn't always happen. Day one should be spent trying to find slip ups or start conversation. Waiting for night one and lynching someone randomly who will most likely turn out to be town will give us nothing to go off of.

UNVOTE: mafia
VOTE: m0ckingbird20

Choosing to start helping the town only after losing most likely two strikes me as anti-town behavior especially in a game this size.

1.) I don't think you needed to unvote "Mafia."

2.) Your first paragraph is a little difficult to follow - do you want to lynch on Day 1 or not? I'm going to assume that you do, given that you just voted Mockingbird. As for dstarting conversations and looking for slip-ups, this is a given. In fact, I'm beginning to wonder if you started this game-theory debate just to grab easy Town-cred by espousing obvious Pro-Town policies without actually scumhunting.

3.) This is a small quibble, but: Game-size really doesn't impact the efficacy of Day 1 lynches. There are factors that do, but size isn't one of them (odd/even player numbers matter in Vanilla games, but even this is distinct from "size").

@Fynx

Originally Posted by Fynx

Oooh, what a start.

VOTE: Dark Blueberry

Seems like mafia just trying to get an easy post so that they won't be seen as lurking.

Ooh, now this is a good RVS vote. You backed it up with something worth pursuing. This tells me you aren't afraid that people will follow you.

@FinalArcadia

Originally Posted by FinalArcadia

However, there have been more than a few games where mafia has actually been struck on Day 1, thanks to some slip-ups caused by random voting, or just scummy behavior being readily apparent. A lynch itself may not be necessary to catch such things (though it isn't always a bad thing, for sure), but votes are important, especially to analyze later on. Even seemingly random votes can sometimes be seen to have had meaning behind them, after more pieces fall into place.

VOTE: Fushimi

I know you've been online and all but have yet to post, so any comments on the Day 1 debate?

I like your first paragraph, but I'm a little disappointed that you chose to vote for someone with no votes on them when there were already a couple acceptable votes on the table ready for sheeping.

Originally Posted by FinalArcadia

Originally Posted by Fushimi

There's really nothing for me to mention as of yet.

No comment on anything? Not on the timeless debate on what is a good course of action on Day 1, or any sort of comment on anyone's reactions to said debate (or anything else, for that matter)?

It'd be great to get even more discussion going, to head into Night 1 with things to look at, so getting opinions out could be useful.

This is a good way to look pro-town without actually being pro-town: Promote "discussion" without actually discussing anything.

The whole post is constructed in such a way as to say, "I'm Pro-Town promoting Pro-Town things," without actually creating substantive discussion.

Originally Posted by FinalArcadia

Originally Posted by Fushimi

There's nothing to add to that debate that hasn't been already said. That debate doesn't show much because it's a matter of opinion and play style.

If I find something I'll say it. However, right now there isn't much to look at besides that debate. I'm going to wait a little more to actually add to the discussion. There's still quite a bit of time, so no need to rush.

I was kind of looking for what your opinion personally was on Day 1 and if anything from that discussion stood out, but eh, fair enough, it is early in the phase.

This feels disingenuous. If you are truly satisfied with Fushimi's response ("good enough"), why are you still voting for her?

@Fushimi

Originally Posted by Fushimi

There's really nothing for me to mention as of yet.

Vote: Shadows

Because of shadows.

I disagree, there is a lot you could comment on now. And, like I said to FinalArcadia, I don't really understand this vote given that there were already acceptable votes floating around to be sheeped. Spreading our votes out among as many players as possible is distinctly non-threatening to Scum.

Originally Posted by Fushimi

Originally Posted by FinalArcadia

Originally Posted by Fushimi

There's really nothing for me to mention as of yet.

No comment on anything? Not on the timeless debate on what is a good course of action on Day 1, or any sort of comment on anyone's reactions to said debate (or anything else, for that matter)?

It'd be great to get even more discussion going, to head into Night 1 with things to look at, so getting opinions out could be useful.

There's nothing to add to that debate that hasn't been already said. That debate doesn't show much because it's a matter of opinion and play style.

If I find something I'll say it. However, right now there isn't much to look at besides that debate. I'm going to wait a little more to actually add to the discussion. There's still quite a bit of time, so no need to rush.

It is a matter of opinion, but some of the opinions being expressed are objectively wrong - it wouldn't hurt to point out which ones.

And again, I don't see how you can have nothing to say, given that there has already been a good deal of discussion to comment on.

---

Part B:
How to use your vote to find scum.

Alright, so I started typing up one of my standard rants, but I've changed my mind. Why waste my effort expounding upon this topic when someone else has already done such a great job of explaining how voting is supposed to work?

So, without further ado, here is Thor665's (one of the coolest people on MafiaScum) rant on how to use your vote to catch scum:

Originally Posted by Thor665

I hear this all the time when people aren't voting because they don't want to 'waste' their vote or something. It's utter gak and dumb in my opinion - there are so few times when it is actually a good idea to not have a vote in play. I have answered this a number of times, but here's Thor's theory of "Use Your Vote (you lackwit!)"


A vote is a weapon, a weapon in finding scum. You need to figure out who you suspect, you need to decide someone you're willing to see dead - then you need to vote them. Then you need to explain why they need death, you need to see who supports you, who opposes you. Then, if you get enough people together you can get them to L-1 and see how they react. Maybe someone will want to hammer, maybe there will be a claim, maybe there won't. Maybe other people will hate that wagon and start a new one on someone different, someone they do see as scummy. People will debate these wagons.

That generates reads, real reads, reads that matter. Going "oh, Chauncy, I find in the sweet afternoons as I sip my whiskey that I occasionally suspect Rupert" doesn't mean gak. Saying "Let's lynch Rupert, I am happy to have him dead" - that matters, that is a commitment, that is a goal. Moving forward from those pressures we will eventually get a L-1 *and* a hammer intent *and* a claim. At that point we can have real discussion, because everyone who isn't voting the lynch will need to offer solid thoughts on it, and everyone who is still voting will need to nut up and prove they have intent there. Maybe the lynch will happen, maybe it won't. There shouldn't be more than 2 claims in the course of a day, but it's fine to have those two and lynch one of them.

Then, Day 2, we will look back on Day 1 and go "hey, look, when this player was about to be lynched this other player acted odd" and we will move from theory hunting into real hunting.

Or, we can all stand around and NOT vote...

Because...that will...help?

I'm not sure why...


Now that was a Day 1 in a Newbie, and some games are more or less forgiving on number of claims, but...meh, 2-3 is probably a safe concept to have at all times.

Vote: Dark Blueberry

Because this is a perfectly fine RVS wagon and I'm not really sure why there aren't more sheep on it.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Doctor jokool while I was writing this. I didn't really feel like plugging his post into my already overgrown wallpost, so I'll comment on jokool's post later.

Originally Posted by Master Mew

EDIT: Ninja'd by Doctor jokool while I was writing this. I didn't really feel like plugging his post into my already overgrown wallpost, so I'll comment on jokool's post later.

Ehehehe.... Sorry about the ninja'd thing...

Anyway, you bring up some good points, but I find if funny that most of them contradict what I said.

OK, Master Mew I am still reading what you posted I have read your comments on me and Thors text. Which btw is just another opinion on how to play the game.

I see that many of you think that I said that we SHOULDN'T vote at day 1. What I said was that if we are to do so let's do it correctly. Plus lynching is Towns strongest weapon but Mafia can use it to their advantage. What I meant is that if each one of us goes voting a different person so we can see their reaction it ends up in a mess.

Besides I didn't equate voting with killing I said that a lynch is a kill. Which does reveals the targets side but it's too late if he is with town.

Oh and usually most people voted by someone end up being more suspicious than before regardless if they "failed" the "test". So I don't think the random voting to test people is a really reliable method.

I don't know you might have covered up some of the things I said but I haven't finished reading your post yet.

Originally Posted by Master Mew

This looks like a pretty standard RVS (random voting stage) vote. One thing I don't like about it, though: You didn't ask anyone to sheep it.

"Because of masters," just drives home the already obvious point that this vote is random, and basically translates into, "I'm placing this vote here so I can say I voted during RVS, but please don't follow my bandwagon because it has no basis and is probably wrong." It is self-defeating. Even if Soulmaster happens to be Scum, he isn't going to be threatened by this vote because the wagon has no teeth - he will not feel pressured, and he will not scumslip - in fact, he probably won't respond at all. I wouldn't.

I find it strange how you're looking into my first post so much. That was a joke vote and I wasn't looking for him to say anything back, because there is literally nothing to say to that. What I was looking for was others responses to it. I was certainly not going to keep that vote if something better came along.

I agree with most of what you said here. One small quibble, though: A "random" lynch on Day 1 usually is a liability to the Town. A random bandwagon, on the other hand, can lead to solid reads on multiple players and help the Town to arrive at a non-random lynch Day 1 - which is fabulously Pro-Town and really needs to happen more often.

Um... but that's exactly what I was saying.

@Momoka It may have been what you meant, but it isn't what you said. You said you disagreed with the premise that "random lynching" is a liability to the Town - I said random lynching is a liability, but a random bandwagon doesn't have to be. The distinction is significant.

And now, with a couple votes on Dark Blueberry, it's time to demonstrate how RVS wagons are supposed to work (though it would be easier with a few more votes, but I have a feeling that's getting a bit ambitious).

@Dark Blueberry Fynx and I have decided we would be comfortable with lynching you today if you don't convince us you are a Townie. Now, there isn't much of a case against you at the moment that you can fairly be expected to offer rebuttal on, so there is really only one way to assert your Towniness: By doing something that only Townies can do, and which Scum must try to fake.

Scumhunt. Scumhunt like you've never scumhunted before! (Though, not the way you would if you'd never scumhunted before )

Since you obviously won't want to be the lynch today, please present a better alternative lynch for the day by carefully examining the posts that have been made so far and voting for whoever looks the scummiest so far.

Look, Master Mew... By simply giving everyone some steps they should follow to have the best performance kinda defeats the purpose. If everyone scumhunts in a specific way and everyone tries the same tricks that is simply unefficient. Everyone will know how to react on everything. That's why there are different playstyles so giving us Thors text and correcting everything we posts according to your playstyle and giving terms to eny kind of action/trick we can follow doesn't really help. So instead of doing that try using your method withough saying out loud and when you get to something let us know.

Originally Posted by m0ckingbird20

Look, Master Mew... By simply giving everyone some steps they should follow to have the best performance kinda defeats the purpose. If everyone scumhunts in a specific way and everyone tries the same tricks that is simply unefficient. Everyone will know how to react on everything. That's why there are different playstyles so giving us Thors text and correcting everything we posts according to your playstyle and giving terms to eny kind of action/trick we can follow doesn't really help. So instead of doing that try using your method withough saying out loud and when you get to something let us know.

This is a team game, though. If we all go off and do our own thing, we will lose.

The Town is greater as a team than the sum of its parts, so we need to cooperate. I'm going to keep promoting what I believe is optimal play, play by which we can find scum and win, until I am persuaded otherwise.

What is your plan, and what can I do to help you accomplish it? If your plan sounds better than mine, then we'll follow it.

Originally Posted by Master Mew

Originally Posted by m0ckingbird20

Look, Master Mew... By simply giving everyone some steps they should follow to have the best performance kinda defeats the purpose. If everyone scumhunts in a specific way and everyone tries the same tricks that is simply unefficient. Everyone will know how to react on everything. That's why there are different playstyles so giving us Thors text and correcting everything we posts according to your playstyle and giving terms to eny kind of action/trick we can follow doesn't really help. So instead of doing that try using your method withough saying out loud and when you get to something let us know.

This is a team game, though. If we all go off and do our own thing, we will lose.

The Town is greater as a team than the sum of its parts, so we need to cooperate. I'm going to keep promoting what I believe is optimal play, play by which we can find scum and win, until I am persuaded otherwise.

What is your plan, and what can I do to help you accomplish it? If your plan sounds better than mine, then we'll follow it.

I didn't say that we should work seperately am i that unclear? Listen I don't say your beliefs are wrong nor that I have a better idea than all of them but you can't handle every move each town player makes if it's a team game let other people have an opinion too. Also as I said you can promote what you believe is better to do but after a point it works against us as mafia knows how to respond.

Now the way I want to work doesn't differ much than your but I am not being negative to almost every post someone makes.

I have no intention of "handling every move each town player makes," and even if I did, the notion that Scum are going to "know how to respond," just because I am clear in my methodology is false.

I'm not being negative, I'm being critical - there is a distinction. I'm analyzing intent, weeding out anti-town behavior, and scumhunting.

We're getting into the weeds now, though, so I'll just ask you a direct question: Is there anyone who looks more likely to be scum than random chance?