Thread: OTP MAFIA - MAFIA VICTORY [06/01/13]

@Hitomi I'm on my cellphone at work right now, that's the primary reason I wanted to wait.

In brief: Your theory rests on one of two antinomic assumptions: A.) I both did and did not catch Haruto's coptells, or B.) I am at once both very clever and very dimwitted.

Reads Haruto's coptells and you'll see what I mean: They are the same breadcrumbs by which we know she checked Parma. If I were scum trying to save the rolecop I wouldn't have done it with a counterwagon on the cop with a guilty on said rolecop. I would have kept Haruto alive because she wasn't pressing her cases very effectively and when you bandwagon the cop they claim and out all their checks (the fact that she didn't stuns me). This particular cop was more dangerous to the mafia dead than alive.

tl;dr If I were scum Haruto Tenjo would not have been my counterwagon to save Parma because I would have compromised myself and only bought Parma one more phase, if even that.

Kaito Tenjo is now Fushimi.

this is the last name change I swear

1. @Master Mew;
2. @Mr. Fahrenheit;
4. @Croag;
5. @Hitomi;
6. @Phoenicks;
9. @DrumBeats;
11. @Sunburn;
12. @twinArmageddons;
13. @Insanish Danish;
18. @Aestivate;
23. @FestiveGreen;
26. @Fushimi;

“Let’s go crazy, crazy, crazy ’til we see the sun
I know we only met but let’s pretend it’s love
And never, never, never stop for anyone
Tonight let’s get some and live while we’re young.”
-One Direction, “Live While We’re Young

It was a rather cold night. The wind made the shutters on the house screech and cry out; the tree branches shook violently. The young man stood outside one of the non-canon couple’s house, his eyes blazing with fire. He heard laughter from inside the house.

The non-canon weren’t alone. They had guests over.

“We need to strike now.” The young man said.

His companion put his hand on his shoulder. “Not tonight,” he whispered in his ear.

As the canon-couple started to walk away, the man threw a rock at the house. It hit the window with a loud crack. The door suddenly opened, and a young woman stuck her head out the door cautiously.

“Hello?” she called out.

There was no answer, but the woman thought she heard the sound of feet shuffling. Shivering, she closed the door and went back to her party.

No one was killed.

It is now Day 6. Phase will end 1/6/13 at 10:00 PM EST.

Originally Posted by Master Mew

@twinArmageddons
@Phoenicks

What are your thoughts on post #154?

Originally Posted by jda95

2000000000000% done with people discussing meta on day 1.

It's slightly ridiculous. Yes, activity is generally pro-town. Yes, even "joke votes" can be used as ammunition in later phases. But this prolonged discussion of the mechanics of early scumhunting and all that jazz ACTUALLY ISN'T REALLY PRO-TOWN.

Pro-town: Participating in voting based on your suspicions in the hope of hitting scum.

Not pro-town: Extensive arguments over what is optimal play in day one and the extent to which certain posts can be interpreted and used as evidence to push lynches, which will most likely lead to personal suspicions being drowned in a sea of debates. We're voting for who we think is scum, not who disagrees with our playstyle and has offended our family honor.

tldr get yo shit together

And yeah I've been too distracted by all your shenanigans to actually think properly about a lynch target for today so I'll be waiting until closer to the deadline.

Pretty savvy because he got town-credit by rebuking discussion without creating any.

He was also wrong because "meta" as used here
is every possible strategy the town uses etc.
needs to be discussed when players are doing the "wrong" thing etc.
etc. etc. etc.

Is there something I should be getting / responding to from this?

Originally Posted by Master Mew

Originally Posted by Mr. Fahrenheit

@Master Mew;

What are your thoughts of the possibility that those who voted for Haruto Tenjo, you included, on day 4 did actually know that she was the cop?

We started with 26 players, presumably six scum, leaving 20 players for the rolecops to potentially check. By Day 4 they would have checked three players - before adjusting for the depleting playercount from phase to phase (math I don't feel like doing) I'd place the probability at roughly 15%, with an equally high chance that they would have checked Sourcandy instead and pushed it that way.

As I mentioned, with proper math the probability would be higher, but still quite low.

The odds are higher because the mafia probably knew that Midorikawa was lynch-proof with KidBeano, and Winter Enchantress claimed Vigilante Day 2.

However, if the mafia knew that Haruto Tenjo was the cop, why didn't they nightkill her?

Haruto/Aelita were lynched without either of them claiming cop -- unexpected.

Especially since cornered cops out their reports, this probably isn't that.

Originally Posted by Hitomi

I would normally wait until day phase to post something like this but there's the very real probability that my partner or I will be targeted for nightkill tonight, so.

Why do you say that?

Originally Posted by Master Mew

All will become clear, one way or another. Besides, if I can't get the answers I want in the Night Phase, why should you?

I think that this is Master Mew being characteristically vague, especially given that he told me that he was working all day today. I mean, being mysterious.

Originally Posted by Mr. Fahrenheit

Originally Posted by Phoenicks

Apologies for not voting. I'm hurriedly finishing my last college application and lost track of time.

Who would you have voted for and why?

Bit of a trick question since it's easy to say that I would've voted for jda95/Parma
We all look at that day with hindsight.

If I had voted for Parma, I would've unvoted when Parma softclaimed.
So I would've switched to Haruto, since she had more votes otherwise.

If we're talking serious votes,
Day 4 I probably would've voted FestiveGreen,
since he keeps coming in thread without addressing
the criticisms against him.

I'll deconstruct his posts later because pretty much all of them have been unsatisfactory imo.

And if I had been voting for pressure's sake, I would've voted Sunburn, since I forgot he was playing until Day 4

Now, Mr. Fahrenheit, who would you have voted for?

Originally Posted by Master Mew

B.) I am at once both very clever and very dimwitted.

Originally Posted by Master Mew

In brief: Your theory rests on one of two antinomic assumptions: A.) I both did and did not catch Haruto's coptells, or B.) I am at once both very clever and very dimwitted.

Reads Haruto's coptells and you'll see what I mean: They are the same breadcrumbs by which we know she checked Parma. If I were scum trying to save the rolecop I wouldn't have done it with a counterwagon on the cop with a guilty on said rolecop. I would have kept Haruto alive because she wasn't pressing her cases very effectively and when you bandwagon the cop they claim and out all their checks (the fact that she didn't stuns me). This particular cop was more dangerous to the mafia dead than alive.

tl;dr If I were scum Haruto Tenjo would not have been my counterwagon to save Parma because I would have compromised myself and only bought Parma one more phase, if even that.

I had a response almost finished and accidentally went back a page and it's all gone. :(

I don't remember everything I put and I'm really tired so I'll try to put what I do remember I wanted to say.

You started the bandwagon on Haruto despite the fact that she was at least attempting to defend herself - and honestly, I disagreed with many of your "suspicions" on her, namely that she was being "overly defensive" when she was responding to Mido's rather snarky comments with a little bit of an edge herself, and who can blame her - whereas Parma was significantly more scummy by the literal last-second hammer and refusal to answer anyone's questions. Why not lynch the one who's more scummy now and put the pressure on Haruto next?

As for Haruto not divulging her checks while she was being bandwagoned, iirc she didn't realize she had the majority of votes on her until it was too late. (I believe she said that if she had known she had the majority of votes on her she would have voted or something along those lines.) As for Aelita, I can honestly say I have no idea what goes on with her most of the time. In addition, there was this huge outcry against claiming - Winter Enchantress claimed to keep the bandwagon off herself and everyone started crying about how she shouldn't have done that (and hey, she was nightkilled next). Haruto offered to claim, but asked for approval first, but by then it was too late.

And finally, why the mafia didn't nightkill her if they knew she was cop - my guess is she got checked night 3, the mafia got results at the start of day 4, and that's the phase she was lynched. They could have waited until the next night to kill her but why not get rid of the cop and save the scum pair (Parma/Joel, who coincidentally were the two who benefited from MM's counterwagon) under fire in the same day? You gave enough reasons that you believed Haruto to be scummy that if you were questioned about it later, you could point at it and say "well, look, I gave plenty of reasoning for my lynch decision, I'm sorry that she was such a scummy cop, but I firmly believed I was acting in the town's best interest."

Oh yeah, almost forgot: What did you mean by "if I can't get the answers I want in the Night Phase, why should you?"

Originally Posted by Phoenicks

Why do you say that?

There are only a handful of townies left, so the probability that either my partner or I would be targeted for the nightkill is what, one in four? It wasn't the case in the end I guess but I'd rather be safe than sorry.

A note to everyone: I'll be gone from Sunday night to Tuesday morning without internet.

Originally Posted by Hitomi

I had a response almost finished and accidentally went back a page and it's all gone. :(

I don't remember everything I put and I'm really tired so I'll try to put what I do remember I wanted to say.

You started the bandwagon on Haruto despite the fact that she was at least attempting to defend herself - and honestly, I disagreed with many of your "suspicions" on her, namely that she was being "overly defensive" when she was responding to Mido's rather snarky comments with a little bit of an edge herself, and who can blame her - whereas Parma was significantly more scummy by the literal last-second hammer and refusal to answer anyone's questions. Why not lynch the one who's more scummy now and put the pressure on Haruto next?

As for Haruto not divulging her checks while she was being bandwagoned, iirc she didn't realize she had the majority of votes on her until it was too late. (I believe she said that if she had known she had the majority of votes on her she would have voted or something along those lines.) As for Aelita, I can honestly say I have no idea what goes on with her most of the time. In addition, there was this huge outcry against claiming - Winter Enchantress claimed to keep the bandwagon off herself and everyone started crying about how she shouldn't have done that (and hey, she was nightkilled next). Haruto offered to claim, but asked for approval first, but by then it was too late.

And finally, why the mafia didn't nightkill her if they knew she was cop - my guess is she got checked night 3, the mafia got results at the start of day 4, and that's the phase she was lynched. They could have waited until the next night to kill her but why not get rid of the cop and save the scum pair (Parma/Joel, who coincidentally were the two who benefited from MM's counterwagon) under fire in the same day? You gave enough reasons that you believed Haruto to be scummy that if you were questioned about it later, you could point at it and say "well, look, I gave plenty of reasoning for my lynch decision, I'm sorry that she was such a scummy cop, but I firmly believed I was acting in the town's best interest."

You... didn't address the crux of my post. If I knew Haruto was the Cop, and I was Scum trying to save my Rolecop, I wouldn't have tried to lynch the Cop who had a guilty check on the Rolecop. It is impossible to argue that I knew Haruto was the Cop and at the same time argue that I thought it would be a good idea to lynch her to save Parma - since in order to know she was the Cop, you would either have to have followed her breadcrumbs (which indicate she had a guilty on Parma) or have a rolecop check on her (in which case I would have checked her breadcrumbs).

If the Mafia knew that Haruto was the Cop, then I would expect them to stay far away from that wagon (with the exception of jda95 and Parma, who had nothing to lose) - and if the Mafia didn't know that Haruto was the Cop, then your case against me is weakened considerably.

Oh yeah, almost forgot: What did you mean by "if I can't get the answers I want in the Night Phase, why should you?"

I had asked Phoenicks and twinArmageddons a direct question and received no reply (even though every time I checked the thread Phoenicks appeared to be checking it, too).

---

Originally Posted by Phoenicks

Pretty savvy because he got town-credit by rebuking discussion without creating any.

He was also wrong because "meta" as used here
is every possible strategy the town uses etc.
needs to be discussed when players are doing the "wrong" thing etc.
etc. etc. etc.

Is there something I should be getting / responding to from this?

Just wanted your thoughts on it - since you neglected to address it at the time, even though you made a point of addressing these posts with similar points (which came later, so it's not like you were already tired of the discussion):

Originally Posted by Merry

Originally Posted by Hitomi

Also, forgive me for not participating in the mafia philosophy discussion taking place for eight pages but as idgaf about said discussion about meta vs wifom vs whatever I decided to wait until there was some actual discussion about the game we're playing before saying anything.

Pretty much the same with me.

Originally Posted by Winter Enchantress

1. Simple. If I gave away my role early on, the mafia could see me as a threat and take me out. If you want me to roleclaim then I will.
2. I don't even know what a WIFOM even is, and I don't want to deal with all of this meta stuff.

Originally Posted by Winter Enchantress

If you get with all of the technical terms and whatnot, it just puts people off from voting. As we seen in the day 1. People didn't want to see it, so they chose to hold off on voting until we actually got real evidence, and were actually talking about catching scum. Not about the meta itself.

See? If you just said interrogating me instead of calling it WIFOM or such, then it's much easier to understand.

and I didn't ignore its existence per se. It's just that I don't understand it, and it just makes things much more confusing to me.

I already said I'd roleclaim if you guys wanted me to.

Couldn't figure out why all of the other, "Stop talking about Meta," posts irked you so much but you ignored jda95's... at the time I thought maybe you just didn't want to get into it with your pal, but... well, then he flipped Scum.

What prompted you to avoid the debate this one particular time?

---

Originally Posted by Master Mew

B.) I am at once both very clever and very dimwitted.

Oh you.

---

You and twinArmageddons sort of set yourselves up as the Town's babysitters leaders from Day 1 onward - so why did the Town play so poorly from Day 1 onward? Not once did we lynch scum until yesterday, and then not because of any mindblowing case put forth by an astute townie, but because of Cop breadcrumbs. This isn't an insult, it's a compliment... it just also happens to be the reason I'm voting you.

Basically, what I want to know is, how did the game get to this point? I know why I'm still alive (recent sub, lynched the Cop), but I'm having a hard time justifying you two.

Vote: Phoenicks
Please explain why twinArmageddons is Scum, or why you are not - either will do.

FoS: twinArmageddons
Please explain why Nick is Scum, or why you are not - either will do.

You two have had it entirely too easy in this game.

Originally Posted by Phoenicks

Now, Mr. Fahrenheit, who would you have voted for?

Most likely DrumBeats because his silence started to be worrying or FestiveGreen because he kind of appeared from nowhere and left a vote with no accompanied reasoning. I didn't find his clarification of the reasons that good either.

Originally Posted by Aestivate

huzzah
that took way too long to achieve
WHY DIDN'T YOU GUYS LISTEN TO ME BEFORE HUH

Well, maybe we should have. Why don't you tell more about your thoughts? Perhaps there would be someone who would listen this time.

vote: croag

what have you achieved this game other than a) be suspicious of the cop after the cop actually nailed a check and heavily hinted towards it and b) followed bandwagons?
scumhunt do it@@@

you were one of the few that voted for haruto and joel voted directly after you to seal the deal

and rly mm you're going to play the 'both of you can't be town' game against nick and david even though they are the few actually making contributions other than 'derp this person is mafia because person x sai so'

Things are turning around, a good lynch and no nightkill; Maybe I just should hang out in D.C. until this game is over :P

They're making contributions, but it's now Day 6 and neither of them have been killed yet, which is odd considering how aggressively they've been playing.

Both FestiveGreen and Croag have posted sparsely throughout this game, as the posters above me have pointed out, and when they have it hasn't exactly benefited the town. It's one thing to jump on a bandwagon from time to time, but it's another thing when that and joke voting/voting with little to no reasoning is pretty much all that you contribute to the thread.

Originally Posted by Aestivate

vote: croag

what have you achieved this game other than a) be suspicious of the cop after the cop actually nailed a check and heavily hinted towards it and b) followed bandwagons?
scumhunt do it@@@

you were one of the few that voted for haruto and joel voted directly after you to seal the deal

and rly mm you're going to play the 'both of you can't be town' game against nick and david even though they are the few actually making contributions other than 'derp this person is mafia because person x sai so'

How was what Haruto said about their suspicions towards Parma a cop hint if we didn't know she was cop? Only after she was lynched and we knew her role was the cop check hint actually obvious. Please don't tell me you knew that was a cop hint before Haruto was lynched, because I don't think anybody did, and if they did, they would have defended her. I haven't just followed bandwagons, I was the 2nd vote on Haruto, since I agreed with MM's reasoning at the time. I was suspicious of Haruto, not intentionally suspicious of the cop.

Originally Posted by Sunburn

Both FestiveGreen and Croag have posted sparsely throughout this game, as the posters above me have pointed out, and when they have it hasn't exactly benefited the town. It's one thing to jump on a bandwagon from time to time, but it's another thing when that and joke voting/voting with little to no reasoning is pretty much all that you contribute to the thread.

I haven't posted sparsely. I'm quite sure I've posted more times than you, please correct me if I'm wrong. I haven't once 'joke voted' and I'd like to think I've added some sort of discussion along with reasoning (aside from the jda lynch which needed no explanation)

I have literally joke voted once and that was at the start, and I've been more active in this game since :I

Originally Posted by Master Mew

You... didn't address the crux of my post. If I knew Haruto was the Cop, and I was Scum trying to save my Rolecop, I wouldn't have tried to lynch the Cop who had a guilty check on the Rolecop. It is impossible to argue that I knew Haruto was the Cop and at the same time argue that I thought it would be a good idea to lynch her to save Parma - since in order to know she was the Cop, you would either have to have followed her breadcrumbs (which indicate she had a guilty on Parma) or have a rolecop check on her (in which case I would have checked her breadcrumbs).

If the Mafia knew that Haruto was the Cop, then I would expect them to stay far away from that wagon (with the exception of jda95 and Parma, who had nothing to lose) - and if the Mafia didn't know that Haruto was the Cop, then your case against me is weakened considerably.

Oh yeah, almost forgot: What did you mean by "if I can't get the answers I want in the Night Phase, why should you?"

I had asked Phoenicks and twinArmageddons a direct question and received no reply (even though every time I checked the thread Phoenicks appeared to be checking it, too).


Just wanted your thoughts on it - since you neglected to address it at the time, even though you made a point of addressing these posts with similar points (which came later, so it's not like you were already tired of the discussion):


Couldn't figure out why all of the other, "Stop talking about Meta," posts irked you so much but you ignored jda95's... at the time I thought maybe you just didn't want to get into it with your pal, but... well, then he flipped Scum.

What prompted you to avoid the debate this one particular time?

You and twinArmageddons sort of set yourselves up as the Town's babysitters leaders from Day 1 onward - so why did the Town play so poorly from Day 1 onward? Not once did we lynch scum until yesterday, and then not because of any mindblowing case put forth by an astute townie, but because of Cop breadcrumbs. This isn't an insult, it's a compliment... it just also happens to be the reason I'm voting you.

Basically, what I want to know is, how did the game get to this point? I know why I'm still alive (recent sub, lynched the Cop), but I'm having a hard time justifying you two.

Vote: Phoenicks
Please explain why twinArmageddons is Scum, or why you are not - either will do.

FoS: twinArmageddons
Please explain why Nick is Scum, or why you are not - either will do.

You two have had it entirely too easy in this game.

The scum tells are overflowing this post.

First off, your whole defense statement makes absolutely no sense. At all. End of story. You said "Why would I lynch the cop who had a guilt on my rolecop" but your other option that day was lunching your rolecop. Being mafia is all about buying time. That one extra lynch probably put us in MYLO right now, assuming there were more than two pairs of mafia. What mafia in their right mind wouldn't go for the cops who had guilted the one of their own that they protected with the lynch.

Secondly, you were getting upset about Phoenicks and TA ignoring your question, while you ignored mine. What was your theory, and why did it have to wait until the day? If your theory was this Nick and TA garbage then why isn't you out it right then and there in case you were killed.

Thirdly, it's simple. You didn't want the attention on you last night, so you pulled a misdirection to try and take it off, while stalling to think of some kind of bullshit. Just like you misdirected Parma and Jda's votes to Haruto.

Fourthly, you're trying to pull another misdirection with Phoenicks and TA. You blame all of our mislynches on them for actively scum hunting and interrogating, while you were the direct source of one of the three mislynches. Actually, one of two mislynches, day 1 was a no lynch and day 3 was an independent. And Day 2s mislynch was started by Akuraito. So this misdirection even had no backbone to it.

Vote: Master Mew, there's too much evidence here not to. If you want the vote to change, please defend every point I have made against you, and explain how each of your three misdirections were completely non scummy and protown.

Third and fourth points contain no question, just unverifiable assertions based on the assumption that the first two are true, so I'll address them:

1. Lynching the cop would not have been my "only option" to save Parma, I could have oushed a counterwagon on anyone for any reason - there were plenty of inactives to choose from, so your premise is false. It is irrational to suggest I was trying to knowingly lynch the cop for Parma's benefit because it would not, and did not, benefit Parma. Since Haruto had a check on Parma this would have been the worst possible course of action.

2. I didn't need to defend myself in the Night phase "in case I was killed because if I had been killed I would obviously not be scum.

See, now you're twisting my words. I said why didn't you out your theory that night. Not why didn't you defend yourself. That just proves my point even more that you classify outing others as defending yourself. Now, due to unsatisfactory answers, I'll ask you again.

Why didn't you say your theory before the night phase ended with the possibility of you being killed. Did you know you weren't going to be? Were you just relying on luck? Why was it worth the chance?

Also, defend all three of your misdirections. Why the sudden flip of the votes onto our cop to save Parma? The questions above will suffice for the second one. Then why target Nick and TA for not leading the town well enough when neither of them lead either of the two mislynches, while you led one of them? You also "looked over" that. You're not making your case any better by ignoring my questions.

1. The Haruto lynch: She had made a lot of unexplained assertions (which we now know were her checks) and I wanted her to explain. If she had claimed (as I thought she would if she were cop) I would have of course relented and switched to Parma.

2. Nick and tA: I didn't out my theory last night for two reasons: a. I was at work (am now, in fact) and wallposts are hard on a cellphone and b. Nick and tA are like me, they play for fun, sport and challenge - I did not expect them to kill me last night so if I had died my theory would have been fairly invalid anyway.

As for them nott leading mislynches I wouldn't really expect them to as scum - they aren't morons.

One final clarification: If I were scum I would have caught the coptells and bussed Parma, then nightkilled Haruto beore she could catch anyone else.