OTP MAFIA - MAFIA VICTORY [06/01/13]

I see that either this is some kind of mistake on the mafia's part, or a protection was used...

vote: parmalee

what made you choose midori over we?

For Parma:

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Originally Posted by Parma

I think that midori needs to just stop constantly replying to everything concerning her. makes her seem defensive. as for the vote tonight, vote: midorikawa

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Originally Posted by Parma

I was too busy to post before that point in time, so I noticed the tie and wanted to break it.

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Why did you vote for Midorikawa and not Winter Enchantress?

For Leopard:

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Originally Posted by Leopard

I'm not feeling WE as mafia as her claim is something that can be proven and I think she'd make a better claim if she were mafia. However, we will see when the time comes that we need to use her role.

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What is "the time that we need to use her role"?

For Joltik:

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Originally Posted by Joltik

Okay, I think that Winter Enchantress has come off as somewhat scummy, and if she is not killed this phase then she should be considered a target. The only reason that a mafia would allow for a vig to live would be if they could get the vig to kill for them, and given that we can't have any talking outside the pairing QT or the thread, I find that unlikely. She could have also be a mafia with an extra kill that would claim vig( I've seen it done before) and would use that kill if the town asked the player to prove the role. I somewhat doubt that, since vig is common enough to be a risky fake claim. So I'm still on the fence on her.

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These are all valid considerations but only have to do with Winter Enchantress' claimed role. What do you think about the actual content of her posts?

And, given that nobody was killed last night (a possibility nobody predicted, for good reason), how does that result fit your theory of how to suspect her in relation to the nightkill?

(Nightkill analysis is more useful for forming patterns than for analyzing any specific night, except for particularly "active" nights. Forming hypotheticals and conditionals about a nightkill result actually gives the mafia incentive to fulfill your expectations and pursue a mislynch. Or it could be an indication of you being mafia and setting up the conditions for a kill. Your move.)

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The other person that I find somewhat scummy is FestiveGreen, who posted, made a jokish vote, and hasn't said anything else. I don't really have mush else.

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Why did you suspect FestiveGreen out of all the users who have contributed little to the thread?

For Akuraito:

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Originally Posted by Akuraito

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Originally Posted by Joltik

Because the vig is a huge threat to the mafia, and that's why a kill would be used. If I were mafia, I wouldn't take the risk. But that's just my thoughts.

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twinArmageddons has already demonstrated that it's much more likely that she'll hit a townie over a mafioso, especially with the lack of outside communications.

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Aren't you a little too hasty to accept twinArmageddon's analysis?

I guess this is the same question: Do you think that twinArmageddon is town or scum, and why?

For FestiveGreen:

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Originally Posted by FestiveGreen

Sorry about that, been a little busy with irl stuff and whatnot.

I have to say though, I do agree with Haruto about the people who voted for Mido with no actual basis. Also, has @DrumBeats; been active yet?

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What do you have to contribute that hasn't been said by any other player?

For everyone:

1. It's worth interrogating the players who appeared suddenly at the end, but it's worth investigating everybody. I think that it's a little disingenuous that the consensus is to go after those players -- I'd expect at least one mafioso to be hiding in the group of players who have formed that consensus. Especially when we have so little hard data (one role claim, one lynch, one night kill, and one no kill), the majority of our discussion has to be about scumhunting -- probing with questions and debate. Anyone responding only with reactions to the lynch, the role claim, and the night kill/no kill is not advancing the discussion.

(You all have heads -- use them! The town can only benefit when you contribute with your thoughts and try to actively scumhunt.)

2. It's going to be tempting to massclaim or partner claim following that nightkill. Don't. The mafia only benefit more when they learn everyone's roles -- they have more information than any of us do. A partner claim, likewise, gives the mafia a better idea of how to navigate public discussion.

@Aelita; @Soulmaster; You've both subbed in and (hopefully) have had enough time to respond. Thoughts?

@Mr. Fahrenheit; @Kaito Tenjo; @Parma; You three all came on near the end of Day 2 and voted for Midorikawa without much preceeding activity. Why?

@jda95; Why did you come on near the end of Day 2 and vote for Winter Enchantress?

@twinArmageddons; Why did you unvote?

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Originally Posted by Phoenicks

You three all came on near the end of Day 2 and voted for Midorikawa without much preceeding activity. Why?

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Now I hate to say this like it's some excuse, but I wasn't even on most of the day. Anyway, I know that isn't a good enough reason, so I'll also say this; Remember what I said when I voted her? I said that it might sound bad, but she seemed like she was going to hurt the town regardless of alignment. (all of the attention kept focusing mainly on her, and her actions were only going to keep everything going in circles) I admit, I was a tad nervous that comment would be seen in the wrong light, but it truly was what I thought and was going to say whenever I would have placed my vote or said anything else. Other than that, I felt as if everyone kept repeating themselves, and I would have just said mainly what everyone else was saying, so I stayed out of it.

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Originally Posted by Phoenicks

Aren't you a little too hasty to accept twinArmageddon's analysis?

I guess this is the same question: Do you think that twinArmageddon is town or scum, and why?

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Since a majority of his response to me was based on simple statistics, I didn't see why it would be disputable or not to be accepted.

I would have to say that I believe that he's town over mafia or independent. He seems dedicated to provoking discussion, along with questioning/debating with other players, which, well, is very helpful. Idk, it just seems like his activity would have declined a bit or he would seem less caring about the whole activity issue if he were mafia. I'm not saying that I don't believe he could be mafia; for all I know, he is. But I'm leaning towards him being town as of now, albeit with somewhat weak reasoning towards that thought. ><

This is what I have been discusing with my soulmate

1. We both agree that parmalee's vote was a little...odd. the most likely scenario I can see here is that scarlet and lee share the same role.

2. I think mijz has been a little quiet. Maybe too quiet. My soulmate even forgot he was in this game!

3. I have no idea what just happened. The fact that nobody died disturbs me a little. It could mean that the whole mafia is inactive{not very likely}, or that the mafia targeted the same person the doctor protected{more likely} which in this case I believe would be scarlet. So I think she's town.

For Akuraito:

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Originally Posted by Akuraito

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Originally Posted by Joltik

Because the vig is a huge threat to the mafia, and that's why a kill would be used. If I were mafia, I wouldn't take the risk. But that's just my thoughts.

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twinArmageddons has already demonstrated that it's much more likely that she'll hit a townie over a mafioso, especially with the lack of outside communications.

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Joltik's point is valid. If she's not lying, she's the biggest threat to the mafia outside of lynching, right now, even if she is more likely to hit town. (Which is why she shouldn't have claimed >: O)

For Joltik:

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Originally Posted by Joltik

Okay, I think that Winter Enchantress has come off as somewhat scummy

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Care to clarify?

Phoenicks covered the rest of my concerns.

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Originally Posted by Parma

I was too busy to post before that point in time, so I noticed the tie and wanted to break it.

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Vague. Short. One sentence.
You're smarter than that, Parma.

Vote: Parma

I'll take it off if you explain yourself.

For Haruto Tenjo:

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Originally Posted by Haruto Tenjo

While I don't particularly think Winter Enchantress is definitely town, I find it suspicious how you say this.

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????
???
?????
What?

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Now that you have said something like this, the mafia would surely not kill her anyway...

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????
??
??????
?
what

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Originally Posted by Haruto Tenjo

I see that either this is some kind of mistake on the mafia's part, or a protection was used...

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The update spoke of a "chase" and a "distraction".
The mafia tried to kill.
The town used a condom.
I mean a doctor.
[s]pick your words better and i won't 'make sex jokes :p{/s]

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Originally Posted by Haruto Tenjo

As I have been saying in thread, I don't think we should be paying attention to the ones who aggressively voted Midori/KidBeano. Rather, we should be paying attention to the ones who suddenly came in thread with barely anything to contribute on their own besides voting them. We shouldn't ignore everyone who votes them altogether, because surely one of the them was mafia, waiting for the chance to hop onto a promising wagon.

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There is a lot of surety in your voice.
"Surely one of them is mafia"
On the same token, you're saying that we shouldn't go after the people who voted for KB and Mido?
What?
A lot of what you're saying doesn't make sense.

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Originally Posted by Phoenicks

I guess this is the same question: Do you think that twinArmageddon is town or scum, and why?

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you're cute

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2. It's going to be tempting to massclaim or partner claim following that nightkill. Don't. The mafia only benefit more when they learn everyone's roles -- they have more information than any of us do. A partner claim, likewise, gives the mafia a better idea of how to navigate public discussion.

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THIS SO MUCH
IF YOU ROLECLAIM OR TRY TO MASSCLAIM
THERE WILL BE A RECKONING

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twinArmageddons: Why did you unvote?

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I did not feel comfortable voting for Winter Enchantress. She had dispelled my arguments well enough. Likewise, I did not feel comfortable voting for Midorikawa. I would have hammered were it necessary.

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Originally Posted by Akuraito

Since a majority of his response to me was based on simple statistics, I didn't see why it would be disputable or not to be accepted.

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This, my friend, is confirmation bias. When have statistics ever been simple? If I say a politician is up 51 to 45 the polls, that means nothing if I don't have the error. Sure, Winter Enchantress is probably going to kill a townie (if she's a vig). But that doesn't mean she's mafia.

You are all too willing to believe an argument if it's "town-sided"...

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I would have to say that I believe that he's town over mafia or independent.

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Really now?
Could I not be arguing for all of this free discussion to hide in the shadows myself?
You all seem to be following what I want you to do! Isn't manipulation the trademark of the mafia?

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Originally Posted by Aelita

The fact that nobody died disturbs me a little.

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!!!

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Originally Posted by twinArmageddons

The update spoke of a "chase" and a "distraction".
The mafia tried to kill.
The town used a condom.
I mean a doctor.
pick your words better and i won't 'make sex jokes :p

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How are you so certain it was the work of a doctor and someone just wasn't a 1x nightkill? I mean, it is certainly plausible, but the way you are 100% certain just from the FT...

mother of... I didn't mean for that to sound sexual, honest

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There is a lot of surety in your voice.
"Surely one of them is mafia"
On the same token, you're saying that we shouldn't go after the people who voted for KB and Mido?
What?
A lot of what you're saying doesn't make sense.

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Maybe the way I've been wording this is odd. I meant that the ones who were more aggressive are less suspicious in my eyes. But I am looking at the ones who randomly posted after not posting much, just to vote Midori. I hope that was put in terms that could be understood.

Vote: Parma

I've played enough games with you to know when you're acting suspicious, and the answer you gave for coming in and voting at such short notice doesn't exactly fly with me.

If you can come up with a more substantial explanation, however, I'll take my vote off. I've got my eye on other players too (mainly the others who voted for Midorikawa with no basis or reasoning whatsoever).

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Originally Posted by Insanish Danish

the others who voted for Midorikawa with no basis or reasoning whatsoever

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this sentence has been come the flavor of the week
using it gets you no points

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Originally Posted by Phoenicks

@Mr. Fahrenheit; You three all came on near the end of Day 2 and voted for Midorikawa without much preceeding activity. Why?

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I was largely away on day 2 and most of the discussion happens when I am asleep, anyways.

I think I already gave my reasons why I voted for midorikawa. I found her behaviour on days 1 and 2 scummy enough to place a vote on her.

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Originally Posted by Phoenicks

@jda95; Why did you come on near the end of Day 2 and vote for Winter Enchantress?

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Originally Posted by jda95

Vote: Winter Enchantress

She's been acting exceptionally scummy so far and her claim makes me very wary. If she is telling the truth about her vigilante claim I feel she'd be potentially even more dangerous than if she were mafia - as TA pointed out, a vigilante without the ability to properly analyze and scumhunt is more of a hindrance to the town than they're worth.

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pretty much everything I said here????? I never exactly "changed my mind" about the whole thing.

As a rule I will push for a lynch because I hate seeing an indecisive town getting completely floored by the mafia because of ties and no-lynches. A weak town is helpless against nightkills and has a much greater potential of having its vote controlled by the mafia. In this case, the argument on WE seemed more compelling than the one against Midorikawa, and there was a tie that needed to be broken.

speaking of nightkills am i the only one that finds it odd that there's been two nights without one :I

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Originally Posted by jda95

speaking of nightkills am i the only one that finds it odd that there's been two nights without one :I

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That's a bit odd find because there was a nightkill on night 1.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Fahrenheit

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Originally Posted by jda95

speaking of nightkills am i the only one that finds it odd that there's been two nights without one :I

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That's a bit odd find because there was a nightkill on night 1.

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derp
i'm thinking of the failed lynch on midorikawa on day 1

Why is the no nightkill turned into an issue? The most obvious solution is the doctor protected someone correctly, probably hurristat or someone else who appears to be town. Don't see what's the point in trying to find other explanations, unless you truly believe the mafia is all inactive people or something.