
Originally Posted by
Phoenicks
Vote: Booster Gold
I don't want to be lynched and I need to find an alternative. Booster Gold has not been active since the 3rd and, because there's no information with which to assume that he's town, he's got the random probabilility of being mafia (assuming 2 mafia out of 9 players, 22%). Given the number of roleclaims that lend themselves toward town (which I shouldn't discuss,) I'd actually rate his probability of being mafia closer to 50%. CharAznable has been similarly inactive, and is a likely second target if Booster Gold flips town (and no other obvious scum candidates step forward.)
This analysis ignores the conversion, but there is likely at least one mafioso who was always a mafioso. This means that a player could be one of two mafia -- the converted, or the mafia from the beginning. Players who have a good claim (i.e., mason) have a low chance of belonging to the latter category, and a lower overall probability of being scum. The inactive players have no such alibi and are more likely to be scum than the average population. It sounds backwards, but it makes counterintuitive sense.
Also inactive players contribute nothing to a game.
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