FinalArcadia, I'm cleared. Why are you voting me?
It's possible, but to me, there are so many holes in what she's been saying, it seems very fishy.
Sorry for my absence: I was on vacation for two days and only had iPhone access. Keyboard restored, the wallpost follows:
This game had 16 players and, with a converter, likely 3-4 mafia. Let's assume 4, given the conversion. That leaves 12 innocents. We know now that there are 2 dead mafiosi and 2 dead townies, leaving 2 mafia and 10 innocents. After nightkills that leaves a positive balance of 9 townies, which implies 4.5 --> 5 mislynches. The numbers go up if you assume fewer mafia. This is huge for such a small game. We have breathing room.
The conversation about the converter is missing something: There is likely another mafioso who has not been converted. If we only hypothesize in one dimension, then we will have an incomplete analysis.
The information (claims) presented: I was supposedly protected last nightphase; Sputnik claims a nightkill protection; HumanDawn claims silencer; someone was protected last night; someone killed mafia last night; someone was likely converted.
Within the "who was a suitable convertee" conversation, the only discussed players have been Sputnik, HumanDawn, and myself. It's a fair conversation to be had, but any player could have been converted. We can approach this problem with our limited information, but we do not know what the mafia knew when (if) they made a conversion. (I know that I wasn't the converted so I won't argue for my own lynch.) These conversions all have plausible theories that explain them. They can't all be right.
It should be noted, however, that Sputnik has a theory that explains why she wouldn't've been converted. HumanDawn does not.
With a lack of evidence with which to deny these theories, I move on:
Ignoring the conversion element, Sputnik claimed to have been twinArmageddon's mason without a counterclaim. HumanDawn claimed to be a silencer. The former is a characteristic that leans townie; the latter is a nulltell at best. (It's true that loudly claiming silencer is unusual for a mafioso. This is why it might look attractive to a mafioso. It becomes WIFOM.)
Additionally, if HumanDawn is mafia, then lynching him first makes more sense because he can silence another player every nightphase he gets. This reason, combined with the differences between Sputnik and HumanDawn explained above, imply that lynching HumanDawn first is the better proposition. As I already outlined, we have the room to make a mistake.
I was not converted, for whatever my word is worth.If the mafia is namekilling, Phoenicks seems like an obvious choice - he was either converted or targeted for the nightkill.
What is "research"?This is coming off as a big OMGUS to me, yet I'll need to do a bit more research till I vote.
Didn't she?And if she was Nightkill immune, why not say it outloud?
Well, if we lynch Human and he turns out to be the converted Townie, then Sputnik is cleared again. If he flips Town, we're back to where we started. If he flips scum (not converted), then we can assume only the converted is left.
On the other hand, if we lynch Sputnik and she flips Town, Human is still a suspect, if we lynch Sputnik and she flips converted scum Human is still a suspect because of his role, and if Sputnik somehow flips non-converted scum (despite being an uncounterclaimed mason), Human is still a suspect.
Lynching Human lends us the chance of clearing Sputnik, while there is no scenario in which lynching Sputnik clears Human.
So unless there's something I'm missing here, lynching Human appears both pragmatic and, ultimately, inevitable.
We're 2 cool 4 u
The silencer role was already making most of us suspicious that he was mafia. His actions this phase in singling out one player as a possible mafia convertee hint more toward the actions of a mafioso attempting to take out a confirmed townie by getting the mob against her rather than using a nightkill.
I think the main point we can take from Phoenicks is that if we go into this thinking there is only a few suspects for the converted we're not gonna exactly have an easy time in this, so unless we hit them within the next few phases we can't exactly rest easy.
@HumanDawn; The convert could have been set at any time, and it would have taken affect the next phase.
Voting locked. Update pending.
Whoa, dammit. I totally missed everyone voting Human like this. I did kind of suspect that he may have been converted, but I did not think everyone would hop onto his wagon. I guess I'll find out if he was, though...
Case open, Case shut
Unlike the quiet night before, the day seemed to be having lots of noise. The Fearless pair seemed to be getting into the most trouble out of the other pairs. Unlike his fighter unit, it was the sacrifice who was in suspicion now.
“How do we know you’re not conspiring with the enemy!?” Yoji angrily yelled, still mourning his Zero partner’s death.
Mimuro still had a smile on his face and shook his head, “I have no idea where you’re even getting that…” He laughed awkwardly at the end, not sure how convince anyone.
Nisei walked over where others were cornering the Fearless sacrifice. He raised an eyebrow, “Why are you all singling Mimuro out? Anyone could be the one conspiring against us, if at all.”
“He’s a shady person to begin with. His ability, everything.” Another one spoke up.
Nisei shrugged, not listening. It still made no sense to him, but he wasn’t going to do anything about it, and walked away. “Well, hope this works out for you, Mimuro.”
“H-Hey, wait up and help me out…?” That was to no avail though, since the black hair already left. Mimuro sighed. He wasn’t sure where Mei was, and she was the one person who could help him out of this mess. Maybe even she didn’t trust him as well…? No, he didn’t want to think that. Mei wouldn’t betray him or think he would betray her.
While thinking those thoughts, he was caught off guard. One of the ones surrounding him had sliced his stomach, making a huge cut. The cut was too big for him to be healed, and he fell to his knees.
“Aw, damn… Is this really how it’s going to end?” he began to close his eyes, and gritted his teeth at the unbearable pain. “Mei, I hope you make it out of here alive.” And just like that, his life ended, never to come back…
It is now Night 3. You may now send in night actions. This phase will end on the fifth of December, at 11:00 PM, EST.
I wish I could have saved you, but I didn't look in thread before...
Case open, Case shut
I don't really see why the bandwagon had even started, he was obviously telling the truth the whole time... I still have my thoughts that Sputnik was converted.
Case open, Case shut
Same here, other than the fact that he claimed silencer, I saw no grounds for him to get lynched. Sputnik on the other hand... I will be very surprised if she's not using her "confirmed" status to get away with being a converted mafia member.