Mafia: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win! - Page 18
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Thread: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win!

  1. #256
    Level 7 Master Mew's Avatar
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    Default Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win!

    Quote Originally Posted by Neosquid View Post
    This thread is still getting posts? Surprising.
    More posts in death than in life, it seems.

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  2. #257
    ♦ ceaseless rain ♦ Neosquid's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win!

    Depressing irony...?

  3. #258
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    Default Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win!

    Indubitably.

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  4. #259
    Cryst Fairy HumanDawn's Avatar
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    Default Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Master Mew View Post
    You projected a 5% chance that I would be successful. That's why I said you underestimate me. That's insultingly low. It also misses the point: That's the likelihood that you would believe me, which is entirely different from the likelihood that I would time the claim right to throw the town into temporary confusion, briefly divide the vote tally, and Tailisu and I would succeed in swooping in and tying the votes right before deadline.
    I said that it was the likelihood that it would succeed overall. I don't believe that it's the likelihood that I'd believe you. That's saying that all 3 of us wouldn't have voted you or Tailisu10, and the deadline is in 24 hours. If we didn't believe you we would have all voted for you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Master Mew View Post
    I didn't need you, or anyone, to believe me in order to win. I just needed to cause the right amount of confusion at the right time. That was "very doable." It is also why I don't want to speculate on whether or not you guys would have all independently figured out what was happening quickly enough to stop it or not, because it's pretty unpredictable at that point - but it's what would have been necessary to stand a chance of winning in that scenario, so taking that risk is certainly better than not.
    Ahh. So the confusion is "very doable" now, not the plan. Of course it's better to take the risk, but just claiming Cop would have not been enough for it to actually succeed in the end.

    Quote Originally Posted by Master Mew View Post
    I'd give it between 40-55% chance of success, with probably a 10-15% chance of you all actually believing I was Town.
    I'm pretty sure I know what I'd have thought and done in the end. I think I also know Mijzelffan and Yatagarasu well enough that they wouldn't let you win either. Honestly, with such a low chance of us believing you(I'd say it's even lower than that), a 40-55% chance of success is pushing it.

  5. #260
    Level 7 Master Mew's Avatar
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    Default Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win!

    I'm only saying that you're confusing "convincing" with "winning." You can accomplish one without the other.

    Anyway, the only reason I allowed myself to be dragged into this debate was because I called my plan "very doable" and you took issue with that - of course it was doable. Whether or not it would succeed is a separate question, but the idea that it couldn't succeed is ludicrous.

    This is all futile - the game is over, and the outcome is decided. Debating "Well, I think I would have won if X hadn't happened," is pointless.

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  6. #261
    Cryst Fairy HumanDawn's Avatar
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    Default Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win!

    Quote Originally Posted by Master Mew View Post
    I'm only saying that you're confusing "convincing" with "winning." You can accomplish one without the other.
    If you do the convincing, you can have a higher chance of winning.

    Quote Originally Posted by Master Mew View Post
    Anyway, the only reason I allowed myself to be dragged into this debate was because I called my plan "very doable" and you took issue with that - of course it was doable. Whether or not it would succeed is a separate question, but the idea that it couldn't succeed is ludicrous.
    Of course it's ludicrous. That's why I said it had a 5% of succeeding and debated how it wasn't "very doable".

    Quote Originally Posted by Master Mew View Post
    This is all futile - the game is over, and the outcome is decided. Debating "Well, I think I would have won if X hadn't happened," is pointless.
    Yes, but that doesn't mean I can't give advice after of how the plan could have gone better had no Nightkill happened, right?

  7. #262
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    Default Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win!

    Quote Originally Posted by HumanDawn View Post
    If you do the convincing, you can have a higher chance of winning.
    Sometimes. Sometimes not. Sometimes it's even useful to be suspected. I'm merely pointing out that winning and convincing are two entirely separate issues.

    It's about understanding the dynamics of the thread, and how to control them. One can win a game as scum even as the whole Town looks on, knowing they are guilty, if one handles the thread appropriately.

    You could know that I'm scum and I can still win.

    You could be fooled into thinking I'm Town and I could still lose.

    They are entirely separate issues - LYLO is a delicate stage of the game.

    With that, I'd like to drop this theory debate - or possibly move it to a different venue (the Philosophy Thread? I've been trying to revive that).

    I'll give you the last word, though.

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