Mafia: Fire and Ice Mafia --Fire Mafia won! (2/26/13) - Page 17

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Thread: Fire and Ice Mafia --Fire Mafia won! (2/26/13)

  1. #241
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    I'll just list all of my reads:

    Master Mew: I'm still pretty unsure. Leaning slightly town but mostly null.

    Midorikawa: The most pro-town of all players. Almost certainly clear.

    Soulmaster: Probably my strongest suspicion right now. He never justified that whole pointless debate with GliscorMan, and has said time and again (no matter who pointed it out or how they simplified it) that he doesn't get how he's being scummy. As was already pointed out, he simply disappeared during Human's lynch, and taking neither side makes me think he's trying to lay lower than he has previously. He's just gotten scummier as the game has gone on.

    Yata: Pretty inactive when she first subbed in (not giving much to form a reasonable read; yes I know I really shouldn't talk), still don't have much of a solid read on her, but I'm leaning toward scum for now. I didn't like the comment she made a few posts back about how she thought both mafia factions must have targeted Soulmaster last night:
    a. In that case, he would be confirmed town - she contradicted this opinion in post #178 .
    b. How would she know if she was town? (Yes, I'm aware that she said "it isn't definite, etc", but that sort of statement is easy to use to make facts known by scum seem like the opinions of a townie.)

    Since (by my count) there is one vote each for Soulmaster and Yata, I'm going to VOTE: Soulmaster.

    Additionally, if anyone else has not stated their reads on everyone (except themselves, because that's obviously not helpful), now may be the best time.

  2. #242
    I am the Dragon Midorikawa's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    Quote Originally Posted by Yata View Post
    To be honest, I'm not too sure who to vote for. Yeah, I was on, but I was also on my phone, and I had other things to do. I will say that I was thinking on who to lynch.
    Yet the previous day phase you were sure of voting Soulmaster.

    But I'll say Master Mew. Because although he finds Soulmaster more town-like, he has yet to change his vote.
    He said he was starting to see Soulmaster as more town, but never said he thinks he's town.

    Plus, I find that whole going for HumanDawn thing to be quite interesting, how he got Midori to bandwagon on him too, with some very clever reasoning on MM's part that I never even thought of.
    You make it sound like I don't have a mind of my own. Part of his reasoning was originally from me, and I noticed the same things as him.

    And then this day phase he goes ahead and places his vote on Soulmaster.
    Because Soulmaster was his top scumspect.

    On another note, other than your sudden seeing Soulmaster as town, you say MM is most suspicious to you yet you don't vote him. Granted you're reasoning has holes.

    @Master Mew; @Feralize;
    I'm looking at it this way. Yata said Soulmaster was the target last night, so I'm thinking that if she turns up mafia then that means Soulmaster is town and one of us three is the last mafia. There is also the risk of mislynching her as town and unless mafia choose the same target again we lose. That is a risk I'm willing to take and if you two feel like taking it with me then VOTE: Yata for president.

  3. #243
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    Like I said, I'm unsure, but its the best I've got. Go ahead and vote me, if it'll give you a clearer view of who's town and who's mafia.

    Nonetheless I really need to go now - need to study.

  4. #244
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    Quote Originally Posted by Yata View Post
    Because although he finds Soulmaster more town-like, he has yet to change his vote.
    Actually, no, that's not true. I said his reaction to the wagon on him today was townier than your reaction to questioning - that doesn't excuse him from the suspicion he's drawn over the totality of his play throughout the course of the game.

    To sum it up: In this particular phase, you have been scummier than Soulmaster - but over the course of the game, Soulmaster was scummier than you.

    I didn't move my vote for that reason, as well as the (clearly stated) fact that I was explaining in that very same post that the Town needs to agree to a lynch and pull our votes together to avoid a last minute scum tie-up. I was trying to coordinate with my top townread to determine who best to lynch - leaving both you and Soulmaster at one vote each was a good place to begin negotiations.

    I felt I was pretty transparent about my methodology, but I apologize if it was in any way unclear.
    Plus, I find that whole going for HumanDawn thing to be quite interesting, how he got Midori to bandwagon on him too, with some very clever reasoning on MM's part that I never even thought of.
    Human was scummy, we lynched him. If you were opposed to that lynch, why didn't you say so? We let the timer run all the way down on that phase, the full 72 hours, specifically to allow discussion instead of hammering early, but you wait until now to say you disagreed with it?
    And then this day phase he goes ahead and places his vote on Soulmaster.
    Who you agreed up until now had been suspicious.




    Quote Originally Posted by Midorikawa View Post
    @Master Mew; @Feralize;
    I'm looking at it this way. Yata said Soulmaster was the target last night, so I'm thinking that if she turns up mafia then that means Soulmaster is town and one of us three is the last mafia. There is also the risk of mislynching her as town and unless mafia choose the same target again we lose. That is a risk I'm willing to take and if you two feel like taking it with me then VOTE: Yata for president.
    If Yata flips Scum, our work is cut out for us. I can agree to that.




    Quote Originally Posted by Yata View Post
    Like I said, I'm unsure, but its the best I've got. Go ahead and vote me, if it'll give you a clearer view of who's town and who's mafia.

    Nonetheless I really need to go now - need to study.
    Inviting a hammer?

    With no kill last night, we're left with the same pool of suspects we had before - there's no new data to pore over. The game has been getting sluggish and I suspect this phase has exceeded its usefulness.

    Rule of thumb: Use all the time you need in a phase, not necessarily all the time you have.

    Unvote: Soulmaster
    Vote: Yata


    It's a rare game where I don't lynch Soulmaster - don't let me regret it.

    *crosses fingers*

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  5. #245
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    Quote Originally Posted by Midorikawa View Post
    I'm looking at it this way. Yata said Soulmaster was the target last night, so I'm thinking that if she turns up mafia then that means Soulmaster is town and one of us three is the last mafia. There is also the risk of mislynching her as town and unless mafia choose the same target again we lose. That is a risk I'm willing to take and if you two feel like taking it with me then VOTE: Yata for president.
    Sounds like a plan. Count me in.

    As Master Mew said, with this plan, we have no need for any more time in this phase.

    Unvote: Soulmaster
    VOTE: Yata

  6. #246
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    Update pending.

  7. #247
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    "Lately I can tell that something ain't right
    I don't see the fire when I look in your eyes
    One time up, and the next time down
    This may be the last time that you see me around, said

    Well it sure seems to me nothing matters tonight
    And all those things we worked out, they got lost in the fight
    Its not enough, girl, that I gave you my soul
    I just want to know if we've got anything left at all, and I say

    Hold on now, baby.
    This could be the last time we stand
    This could be the last time that we say good-bye
    The picture shatters

    I can't find the words to save it
    Tell me what to do, how can I make it right
    We will always be fire and ice."
    -- Fire & Ice, by Poison

    Yata (replacing Sourcandy), A Vanilla Townie has been lynched.



    The phase will end at 10 PM EST on February 26th (the phase has been extended because of the early hammer) OR WHEN BOTH MAFIA KILLS HAVE BEEN SUBMITTED.

  8. #248
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    Well... shoot.

    It's out of our hands, now. Hope for another no-kill, or a crosskill.

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  9. #249
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    Possibility 1 25% chance of both of them hitting separate townies
    Possibility 2 25% chance of them hitting each other
    Possibility 3 25% chance of them choosing the same target
    Possibility 4 25% chance of one hitting a townie and the other hitting mafia

    With 1 no one wins, with 2 &3 town gets another phase and with 4 the surviving mafia wins

  10. #250
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Night 4 (2/25/13)

    Good luck town! And thanks for letting me play Phoenicks and Paperhorse!

  11. #251
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Day 4 (2/23/13)

    Quote Originally Posted by Midorikawa View Post
    Possibility 1 25% chance of both of them hitting separate townies
    Possibility 2 25% chance of them hitting each other
    Possibility 3 25% chance of them choosing the same target
    Possibility 4 25% chance of one hitting a townie and the other hitting mafia

    With 1 no one wins, with 2 &3 town gets another phase and with 4 the surviving mafia wins
    Actually:

    Possibility 1 22.22% chance of both of them hitting separate townies
    Possibility 2 11.11% chance of them hitting each other
    Possibility 3 22.22% chance of them choosing the same target
    Possibility 4 44.44% chance of one hitting a townie and the other hitting mafia

    3DS Friend Code: 2595-1198-0821

  12. #252
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Night 4 (2/25/13)

    @Master Mew; Where do you get your percentages from?

  13. #253
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Night 4 (2/25/13)

    Quote Originally Posted by Midorikawa View Post
    @Master Mew; Where do you get your percentages from?
    Examining the potential nightkill selections.

    We have four players. Since we don't know who's who, we'll substitute numbers for names.

    1 = Fire Mafia Goon
    2 = Ice Mafia Goon
    3 = Townie
    4 = Townie

    The number on the left is the Fire Mafia's kill, the number on the right is the Ice Mafia's kill.

    2-1 = Crosskill
    3-1 = Town/Scum
    4-1 = Town/Scum
    2-3 = Scum/Town
    2-4 = Scum/Town
    3-3 = NO KILL
    3-4 = Town/Town
    4-3 = Town/Town
    4-4 = NO KILL

    Out of those nine possible scenarios, you have one mafia Crosskill (both scum shoot each other), two No Kills (both scum shoot the same townie), two Town/Town kills (scum shoot different townies), and four Town/Scum kills (one scum shoots a townie, the other shoots scum).
    Midorikawa likes this.

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  14. #254
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Night 4 (2/25/13)

    update pending.

  15. #255
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    Default Re: Fire and Ice Mafia -- Night 4 (2/25/13)



    ENDGAME

    I tried to make this cheesy for you Feralize.

    The little Deerling screamed in pain.

    “But, I TRUSTED YOU.” she shrieked.

    The Cloyster laughed haughtily as he finished her off. “Little grass Pokémon just get in my way,” he sneered.


    Midorikawa, A Vanilla Townie, has been killed.



    “This town will belong to me” Cloyster said, proudly.

    “Not over my dead body.”

    The Cloyster turned around and saw a Ninetales staring at him, with fire in her eyes.

    He was so taken aback by her beauty and poise, that he stared back at her, awkwardly. He was speechless.

    “I finally found you.” she breathed.

    Cloyster never said another word, as she disintegrated his body and soul.


    Master Mew, Ice Mafia Goon, has been killed.



    A little Cacnea, witness to the downfall of the town, cowered in fear.

    Soulmaster, A Vanilla Townie,. has been killed in endgame.



    The Ninetales screamed in happiness. Victory was hers. And so was all the cheese in town.

    Feralize, Fire Mafia Goon, has won the game!





    The Fire Mafia has won. Congratulations!

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