Thread: Bionicle Mask of Mafia-Day 10- Reign of shadows. ENDGAME. Mafia victory!!!

Originally Posted by Paperhorse

I know I wasn't the only person who was silent yesterday. @Smasher; what is the reason for your silence? Why did you choose not to vote?

I didn't really have anything to say yesterday.

In regards to the flavor text and nobody being killed, to me, it also sounded like doctor protection. But at the moment, I don't think that's too important to be looking at, when we need to be trying to find scum.

VOTE: Orion

As I said on Day 1, I find that voting and unvoting very odd, and it seems like a scummy move. Perhaps an effort to save face if VeloJello is town and had gotten lynched in part with his vote, or maybe they could both be mafia. Of course, Orion could also be town and have just behaved strangely, but at this point, he stands out most in my mind as suspicious.

Oh, speaking of the flavor text. I'd say it was a Doctor protection, not a roleblock. And considering what I remember about the Bionicle franchise, I think I know who was protected. Or at least kinda who they are.

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

another thing I found interesting about GM was that he changed his vote after MM voted him almost like he was afraid of being lynched

If you look back, I had the majority vote at the time I posted that. Would you have done any differently? I'm also gonna throw it out there that it was past midnight my time when I posted my first post. Just sayin'.

Regarding Orion, he's our best lead right now. His and Velo's actions are... interesting. As pointed out, Mafia often do things like this on D1. I'm not going to vote until I hear a defense, though.

Originally Posted by GliscorMan

@Master Mew;, humor me. Am I still a good first lynch? If so, why?

Well, I'm going to guess that there are five Scum in this game. 24 players total, so I have to find five Scum in a body of 23 players. Thus, each of my potential suspects starts with roughly a 22% chance of being scum. After that, I'll factor actions of note into players' reads and adjust their likelihood of flipping Scum accordingly. Anyone sitting at 22% (most people at the moment) is a null-read, while anyone above 22% is worth pursuing a lynch against, and anyone below 22% is a Townread - there are, of course, varying degrees of Townreads.

So to address your question, your Day 1 actions have elevated your scumread above 22% in my mind, making you a better first lynch than a random lynch - thus, yes, you would be, "a good first lynch." You would not, however, be the best first lynch.

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Originally Posted by Doctor jokool

Originally Posted by Master Mew

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

Anyways Orion seems more suspicious to me as his move seems like a rookie mistake as in a slip up so VOTE: Orion

I'm glad you brought up Orion because I'd like to have a serious discussion about his vote. Several people found that suspicious, and you seem to as well.

I also think that he's suspicious. I've made the same mistake a while back when I was mafia in a game. Mafia tend to random vote other mafioso (this isn't a rule or anything, just what I've learned from experience). My thought is that Orion was 'randomly voting' VeloJello and didn't see the other vote.

VOTE: Orion
FoS: VeloJello

I think we need to at least keep an eye on them, but lynching Orion could give us some important info.

This appears to be the concensus on the scum-narrative for Orion's vote on Day 1.

The problem I have here is that this theory necessitates that Orion and VeloJello be scumbuddies (the likelihood of this decreases my scumread on Orion ever so slightly) and furthermore, I find it difficult to believe that Orion would bus VeloJello without realizing that Velo already had a vote (Midorikawa's). I would expect scum to be more observant if they were voting their scumbuddy.

There is virtually no doubt that Orion made a mistake - but was it a simple mistake (which can be Town or Scum)? Or was it RVS-bussing gone horribly wrong?

Orion could very easily be scum - as could Velo, but the theory that Orion scumslipped in voting for Velo necessitates that they both be scum. So the question becomes, if we are to subscribe to that theory, which one of them is the more pragmatic lynch? If either of them flip Town, the theory is debunked (though the other could still be scum, just for other reasons).

If I had to choose between VeloJello and Orion (as it appears I must, since this narrative seems popular), I would choose VeloJello. Here's why:

Originally Posted by VeloJello

Originally Posted by Paperhorse

Originally Posted by Dark Blueberry

You sure it's not doctor protection? The FT said that the attack was blocked by a mysterious power.

...sounds like someone roleblocked somebody...

That's possible, but remember FT is just FT: Really, anything could have happened. We could analyze it to death and still not get anywhere.

Anyway, I really despise the random voting stage too, and that's why I tend to sit out of it. But my silence isn't going to help anything.

I know I wasn't the only person who was silent yesterday. @jda95; @Froakie; @Smasher; @Fynx; @Zima; @Buoy; what is the reason for your silence? Why did you choose not to vote?

Also, @VeloJello; What do you think of Orion's vote/unvote on you?

I think that Orion is fairly suspicious right now since Midoriwaka's vote was in plain sight, but I also know that that's just the kind of mistake that a forgetful person like me could make. I don't really know much about him/her as a player or person, so I don't know how liable he/she would be to slip up. He/she, as well as GliscorMan, both have FoSes from me.

Fynx, perhaps MM was trying to tie up the votes? I don't think Orion had a vote at the time, maybe he didn't want to see me get hit with a random lynch? Or, he might have been trying to pressure GliscorMan and see if he would reveal anything.

I personally am more suspicious of Orion than I am of anyone currently. GliscorMan's behavior was erratic, yeah, but it was also Day One. Scumtells on Day One are iffy at best. So, Vote: @Orion.

Velo, you were quick to buy the theory that Orion's vote was a scumslip - even though that theory necessarily incriminates you. How can Orion be RVS-bussing you if you are Town?

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Vote: VeloJello

@VeloJello Please explain how Orion's RVS vote on you can be a scumslip if you are Town.

Originally Posted by Buoy

Originally Posted by Doctor jokool

I think we need to at least keep an eye on them, but lynching Orion could give us some important info.

"important info": like what?

Like, helping to figure out which side VeloJello is on for starts. It could give us a lead somewhere anyway.

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Originally Posted by Master Mew

This appears to be the concensus on the scum-narrative for Orion's vote on Day 1.

The problem I have here is that this theory necessitates that Orion and VeloJello be scumbuddies (the likelihood of this decreases my scumread on Orion ever so slightly) and furthermore, I find it difficult to believe that Orion would bus VeloJello without realizing that Velo already had a vote (Midorikawa's). I would expect scum to be more observant if they were voting their scumbuddy.

This is true, but it should be noted that Midori's vote on VeloJello was the first one of the phase and happened to be the last post on the page, thus it could be easy to miss. I may be over thinking things, but I think I'll keep my vote the same and see what happens tonight.

I read your entire voice in Spock's voice. Does this make me a horrible person?

Originally Posted by Master Mew

Well, I'm going to guess that there are five Scum in this game. 24 players total, so I have to find five Scum in a body of 23 players. Thus, each of my potential suspects starts with roughly a 22% chance of being scum. After that, I'll factor actions of note into players' reads and adjust their likelihood of flipping Scum accordingly. Anyone sitting at 22% (most people at the moment) is a null-read, while anyone above 22% is worth pursuing a lynch against, and anyone below 22% is a Townread - there are, of course, varying degrees of Townreads.

So to address your question, your Day 1 actions have elevated your scumread above 22% in my mind, making you a better first lynch than a random lynch - thus, yes, you would be, "a good first lynch." You would not, however, be the best first lynch.

That's the first straight answer I've had in a while. Thanks for that. Well, at least I know where we stand.

While I'm incredibly curious as to what VeloJello and Orion have to say about this accusations, I'd like to point a few things out.

1. Buoy was completely absent from the D1 conversation. He's usually quite a bit more active, especially when it comes to scum hunting, etc. Even considering random voting.

2. Several people, Smasher in particular, used the same exact reason for not saying anything yesterday. I call Smasher out because it seems like he jumped on the "Nothing to say" bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Master Mew

@VeloJello Please explain how Orion's RVS vote on you can be a scumslip if you are Town.

First of all, I would just like to say that I am a confused person at this time. When I 'bought into' the theory, I saw no reason that it would incriminate me. I'm still not sure why I'm under as much suspicion as I am.

So Orion has been on today yet he hasn't come in to defend himself. Anyone else find that odd?

He could either be pretending to be silenced or knows he's done for.

So Midorikawa has posted today since I outlined my problems with the Orion wagon, but she decided not to address them and instead just point out Orion's inactivity. Anyone else find that odd?

(To answer your question, it's odd but not really scummy by itself - could mean a lot of things)

Originally Posted by Master Mew

So Midorikawa has posted today since I outlined my problems with the Orion wagon, but she decided not to address them and instead just point out Orion's inactivity. Anyone else find that odd?

(To answer your question, it's odd but not really scummy by itself - could mean a lot of things)

What do you expect me to say that I haven't already? I already said that Orion could a scum slip or townie mistake, and as for Velo, well it doesn't necessarily indicate her alignment. If Orion is mafia then there is a higher chance of Velo being mafia.

I brought up his inactivity because it brings me back to the bleach mafia when Sputnik had a scum slip and silenced herself in an attempt to make herself look innocent, that's why I brought it up to see what others thought of the situation.

Originally Posted by Master Mew

The problem I have here is that this theory necessitates that Orion and VeloJello be scumbuddies (the likelihood of this decreases my scumread on Orion ever so slightly) and furthermore, I find it difficult to believe that Orion would bus VeloJello without realizing that Velo already had a vote (Midorikawa's). I would expect scum to be more observant if they were voting their scumbuddy.

There is virtually no doubt that Orion made a mistake - but was it a simple mistake (which can be Town or Scum)? Or was it RVS-bussing gone horribly wrong?

In regards to this, I did provide one other theory about his Day 1 vote/unvote that could leave VeloJello as town. I think it could be possible that either they are scumbuddies (as has been discussed), Orion could be a townie who just made a very strange move that comes across scummy to some, or he is mafia and Velo is town, and he was afraid that if she somehow happened to get lynched as a result of his vote, he would've immediately been placed under suspicion, which would give mafia a bad start in this game.

All three are definitely possible, though I am personally leaning toward my third given option now. Since as you pointed out last Day Phase, the situation is a bit different from All-Stars, which is what I was basing option one off of for the most part.

Originally Posted by Zima

He could either be pretending to be silenced or knows he's done for.

My knowledge of Bionicle indicates that a silencer role has a very high probability of being in the game. Some sort of Mask power does that, I think. It's entirely possible. Of course, I think he spoke once today already.

If so, I'd be more comfortable with a VeloJello lynch than an Orion lynch. Either way, it appears that they'll answer the same question as to the two's scumminess.

Vote: VeloJello

@GliscorMan; Exactly what makes VeloJello scummier than Orion?
@Neon Borealis; Can we have a current vote tally?

Originally Posted by Midorikawa

What do you expect me to say that I haven't already? I already said that Orion could a scum slip or townie mistake, and as for Velo, well it doesn't necessarily indicate her alignment. If Orion is mafia then there is a higher chance of Velo being mafia.

Then let's vote either one of them. Then with their alignment, we can get vote the other or not later on.