Thread: Our own tiering system: Empirical Tiers

Originally Posted by evkl

But can you imagine a situation in which something that's broken does not get used everywhere? I can't. If it's broken, why wouldn't everyone be using it? You can't have something that's only on 10% of teams in a tier be simultaneously too overpowered and...only used by 1 person in ten.

Actually I've seen this during the 4th gen metagame. Some people refused to use CB Scizor, MixApe, MixMence, ScarfTran, CM Latias, etc, because they were "used too much" or "were on every single team". It kind of makes sense to me. If you see people whoring the same thing, it's easy to carry counters to that and beat them down. But then again that was a pretty small percentage.

Originally Posted by Axle Helios

I'm pretty sure the fair share negates that problem, but I'm not too sure of the maths, and if it doesn't, then that's a fair point.

The "fair share" doesn't negate the problem completely, but helps reduce it. The idea is that you're not comparing every single Pokémon (649+) in order to find usage statistics, because there will definitely be groups that overshadow others, skewing the results. Instead, you compare them within a tier (about 70 per tier, or 100 in Tier 4/7*) and promote/demote them based on that, so the overshadowing factor isn't as pronounced.

*BTW, Tier 4/7 does not mean Tier 4 or 7, it means Tier 4 out of 7.

Originally Posted by Sublimε

Actually I've seen this during the 4th gen metagame. Some people refused to use CB Scizor, MixApe, MixMence, ScarfTran, CM Latias, etc, because they were "used too much" or "were on every single team". It kind of makes sense to me. If you see people whoring the same thing, it's easy to carry counters to that and beat them down. But then again that was a pretty small percentage.

Well, that's an example of people balancing out the games themselves without having to rely on a tier system to do it for them. So much the better for the system - it doesn't have to do as much.

Originally Posted by coolking503

As for gi-gi's proposal, the same problem I brought up still persists. Given the Latias example, where Latias had only the 4th most usage in the OU metagame, but was still deemed broken. Now, regardless of if you agree that Latias was broken, it wouldn't have enough usage to be banned. As such, usage =/= broken, albeit it being close.

What Axle Helios said - if it's broken but nobody's using it, that means that it's not broken enough to actually be a problem in the metagame. Once it starts becoming a problem, we pull out the promotion/"banning" hammer.

The reason I said start in tier 9 is because it makes more sense. If I start in tier 4, and 19 pokemon are used above their due, while 600 pokemon are used below there due, you have a tier with pokemon who are just good enough to be used in Ubers. Im pretty sure that isn't the definition of tier 4.

Another question: Rotom forms-do they count as one pokemon or multiple?

And as for the broken usage thing... It can happen. correct me if I'm wrong, but if a tier has 48 pokemon and has 80% of its own usage, then it the max a pokemon can be used is 3.5%. Of course, each tier should have about 25 pokemon, and with 80% usage it would cap at 6.4% usage. Is this right?

Originally Posted by coolking503

The reason I said start in tier 9 is because it makes more sense. If I start in tier 4, and 19 pokemon are used above their due, while 600 pokemon are used below there due, you have a tier with pokemon who are just good enough to be used in Ubers. Im pretty sure that isn't the definition of tier 4.

Wait, what? Once the 19 Pokémon that are used above their due are moved up, more Pokémon will take their place to be moved up, and those Pokémon will probably continue to move up until they reach Tier 7. The system will be unstable in the first few months - but that's just because it's untrained. It will stabilize over time, like a Markov chain or a Bayesian spam filter.

Another question: Rotom forms-do they count as one pokemon or multiple?

If the Pokémon are strategically different, then they would count as different Pokémon, yes.

And as for the broken usage thing... It can happen. correct me if I'm wrong, but if a tier has 48 pokemon and has 80% of its own usage, then it the max a pokemon can be used is 3.5%.

What does "80% of its own usage" mean? I'm not sure I quite get you.

If a tier has 48 Pokémon, then the fair share of representation is 2.13%, and any Pokémon that's being used more than 4.08% within that tier (a r.r. of 4.26%, double its fair share) will be bumped up to the next tier.

Of course, each tier should have about 25 pokemon, and with 80% usage it would cap at 6.4% usage. Is this right?

If each tier has about 25 Pokémon, we're going to have a total of 26 tiers >_<

But no, I still don't get what 80% usage means.

If a tier has 25 Pokémon, the fair share is about 4.17%, and the cap is 8.33% (an actual usage of 7.69%).

I think 80% of its own usage means 80% of the Pokes used in that tier are from that tier and not lower tiers (for example, Shedinja being used in Ubers would be part of the other 20%)

Originally Posted by Sarcastically Insane

I think 80% of its own usage means 80% of the Pokes used in that tier are from that tier and not lower tiers (for example, Shedinja being used in Ubers would be part of the other 20%)

Oh.

Well, we're counting total usage over all tiers.

So if a Tier 5 Pokémon were being used in upper tiers, that would count toward its usage total. So Tier 5 Pokémon might have 80% representation in Tier 5 battles, but they might also have 5-10% representation in Tier 6, 2-3% in Tier 7, etc.

How many people would actually frequent the BMG PO server? I think you might want to ask that before going into making tiers based on usage statistics of ~15 people. I'm not saying it will only have about that many people, but you may want to make sure there is enough interest.

Originally Posted by Pidge

How many people would actually frequent the BMG PO server? I think you might want to ask that before going into making tiers based on usage statistics of ~15 people. I'm not saying it will only have about that many people, but you may want to make sure there is enough interest.

See, I had actually considered that as a problem. No matter how elaborate we make our system, it won't make a drop of a difference if nobody uses it.

Just like the brokenness of certain Pokémon, really XD

Originally Posted by Pidge

How many people would actually frequent the BMG PO server? I think you might want to ask that before going into making tiers based on usage statistics of ~15 people. I'm not saying it will only have about that many people, but you may want to make sure there is enough interest.

There's really no good way we can control for this. If the usage isn't high enough to support a tier system, it will end up dying, yeah. But the empirical work underpinning a different tier system (and thought-effort put into it) it is a benefit to the community at large. Even if providing an alternative to Smogon is our only legacy out of this project, I'll be happy.

Originally Posted by evkl

There's really no good way we can control for this. If the usage isn't high enough to support a tier system, it will end up dying, yeah. But the empirical work underpinning a different tier system (and thought-effort put into it) it is a benefit to the community at large. Even if providing an alternative to Smogon is our only legacy out of this project, I'll be happy.

If it never takes off on Bulbagarden, I'll be happy to put it into Four Star Mon if that ever takes off XD

Originally Posted by coolking503

Another question: Rotom forms-do they count as one pokemon or multiple?

Since they all have a different secondary type and therefore play differently, I say they're multiple pokémon.

And indeed, the statistics count them that way.

So, what have we decided on? (If anything at this point >_>)

Originally Posted by evkl

There's really no good way we can control for this. If the usage isn't high enough to support a tier system, it will end up dying, yeah. But the empirical work underpinning a different tier system (and thought-effort put into it) it is a benefit to the community at large. Even if providing an alternative to Smogon is our only legacy out of this project, I'll be happy.

As a possible answer, we've started talking about advertisment in sigs in the PO Development thread. Maybe have a chat to Illustrious or DCM about it.

Originally Posted by Dragonite Ernston

So, what have we decided on? (If anything at this point >_>)

The consensus seems to be using either a 7 or 9 tier implementation of Gi-gi-giaru!'s system, however nothing's written in stone at the moment, and how exactly that tier system's going to be used (eg How it will start, with all Pokémon in Tier 9, 5 or using someone else's usage statistics.) is still being decided on.