BULBAPEDIA: Masuda Method Question

1. ## Masuda Method Question

Best way to ask is to give an example of what I'm currently doing: Right now I'm trying to hatch for a shiny Ponyta in White 1. I have my Ponyta (US version) and a Ditto (Japan). Though what's different is that this Ditto was one that I originally got through a trade in my Platinum Version, then transferred over to White. I've hatched 3360 so far with no results. So my question is, would the fact that the Ditto is a Platinum Japan version affect the outcome? I'm just wondering as 3360 hatches and counting is really bumming me out, and I wish to know if I'm doing this all in vain!

2. ## Re: Masuda Method Question

The chance of each egg being shiny is near enough to random odds, and they can be considered independent. A 1/3360 chance means that, on average, you should get 3359 non-shiny ones for every shiny. But even if you've hatched a million non-shiny eggs, the next egg still only has a 1 in 3360 chance of being shiny. The chance of 3360 non-shiny eggs in a row is (1 - (1/3360)) raised to the power of 3360 (i.e. multiplied by itself 3360 times). This works out to be a pretty lofty 0.368, meaning that there's about a 37% chance of that happening. This means that if you may well be doing everything right.

For perspective: There's a 5.1% chance that you would still not have a shiny egg after you've hatched ten thousand eggs from a valid Masuda method pair in Generation V. (Prior to Gen V the chance at 10,000 was still 19.6%). Not using the Masuda method, the chance of not having a shiny egg is 29.5%

3. ## Re: Masuda Method Question

Ok, that makes sense. Thanks for the info!

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