Joshawott
My theory on Pokémon Grey, Ruby/Sapphire remakes and Generation VI.
by , 13th December 2011 at 12:52 PM (2574 Views)
Since Pokémon FireRed Version and Pokémon LeafGreen Version were released on the Gameboy Advance in Japan on 29th January 2004, just under 8 years after the release of the Gameboy originals Pokémon Red Version and Pokémon Green Version there were calls from the fans for Pokémon Gold Version and Pokémon Silver Version to be remade as well. 5 and a half years later, GameFreak released HeartGold and SoulSilver on the Nintendo DS and people were cheering - until they finished playing the games and realised they wanted Ruby and Sapphire to be remade as well.
Now we've seen two generations with remakes in them, I can understand why people would not only want a remake in Generation V, but how they'd expect one. I honestly would have as well if not for one little fact - Black and White were released on the Nintendo DS. I know, some of you are thinking "Where is this madman going with this?" Well, I'm getting to that (oh and I'm not a "madman" I have "Challenged Sanity"):
The Nintendo 3DS was released in Japan 5 months after Black and White; yet a mere 20-odd days after in the rest of the world. As the Nintendo DS is now out-dated, it would be logical to think that the next Pokémon game would be for the Nintendo 3DS right? Wrong! I direct you to Nintendo's Iwata Asks article about Pokémon Black and White. Now, there are two statements here by Junichi Masuda, the Director of Pokémon Black and White that strike me:
Now, it could easily be argued that his definition of "generation" may be different to our fan definition and fair enough, I'd accept that. However, this next quote really drills the message in:Yes. I had always wanted to make a second generation for Nintendo DS. Because the Nintendo DS family of systems has spread around the world to such an amazing degree.
There we have it. That is why GameFreak will most likely be saving the Nintendo 3DS for the next generation. If they were to move to the new console now, they would only encounter those same problems when it comes to working on Generation VI's Primary Pair.Yes. Since this generation would be presented on the same system, I was extremely worried that it would turn out to be basically the same as its predecessor. If we tried to make it the same way as normal, I thought the games would turn out to be similar to Pokémon Diamond and Pokémon Pearl Versions.
People may now be thinking "Well, why don't they just end Generation V now?" Well, let me bring to your attention a certain misunderstanding that surfaced due to comments made by Pokémon designer Mana Ibe, which was denied by Junichi Masuda himself. This obviously means that Generation V will have a third version. Now there's the issue of when it will be released and what console it will be for - but wait a minute! On 28th October 2011 it was reported on various websites that in a Nintendo Financial Conference, it was stated that a new Pokémon game will be released in Japan next Spring! Yes, it is likely that the new game will be a "side-game" and not a "main series" game. However, what of the much anticipated surprise announcement at Jump Festa later this week? Considering the vast areas the event covers (anime, games, manga, movies - all of which make up parts of Pokémon's mega-structure) that announcement could be anything, but we've just recently learned of Pokémon Best Wishes Theatrical Edition: Kyurem VS The Sacred Swordsmen.
Now, it was fairly obvious that the Mythical Pokémon Keldeo will be unveiled soon and will star in the latest movie - after all, the Sacred Swordsmen are there. Also, look at the movie's logo:
Doesn't that red strip under the "VS" look like a more stylised version of Keldeo's hair?:
However, what of Kyurem? Well, due to the naming scheme of Black and White, the third version is commonly known as "Pokémon Grey" (or "Gray", if you're American and don't know how to spell properly. Before anyone gets butthurt, that was a joke about the differences between U.K. English and U.S. English, okay). Well, it is certainly clear that Kyurem is part of the Tao Trio. If we look back at Pokémon Emerald version and Pokémon Platinum version, it becomes clear that the third in a "trio" that contains the version mascots will become the next version mascot (the only exceptions being the international release of Generation I, although the Japanese release had all three starters, and Generation II due to Lugia and Ho-Oh not being in a trio). However, Suicune, Rayquaza and Giratina all starred in their own movies during the year, or following the year that, their games were released:
Suicune: Pokémon Crystal (December 2000), Pokémon 4Ever (July 2001)
Rayquaza: Pokémon Emerald (September 2004), Destiny Deoxys (July 2004)
Giratina: Pokémon Platinum (September 2008), Giratina & The Sky Warrior (July 2008)
Pokémon Yellow was excluded due to it being made purely to kill some time while Gold & Silver were still being made and because Pikachu is the mascot of the franchise as a whole. However, if you want, you can look at the Japanese Blue version, which was released in 1996 - a few months after Red and Green. The difference between Blue (1996) and Crystal (2000) is 4 years, which you'll see I bring up in my next point:
Note that the time-gap between each of those games is approximately 4 years. What's 2008 + 4? 2012. I was always taught in maths that something cannot be suspected to a pattern until it occurs twice and cannot be confirmed a pattern until it occurs three or more times. There are three instances there of third versions being released four years apart - and this year also sees a movie starring the suspected mascot of the next third game. What does this mean? Pokémon Black and White's Third Version will be released in 2012.
Some people will still say "Wait, it's still too soon for a third version!" and honestly, I think that argument is one of the most idiotic I've heard - especially as they're the same people asking for remakes. Let's look at the time-gap between past primary pairs (triple alliteration win!) and their third versions:
Pokémon Red/Green (1996) -> Pokémon Blue (1996) / Pokémon Yellow (1998)
Pokémon Gold/Silver (1999) -> Pokémon Crystal (2000)
Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire (2002) -> Pokémon Emerald (2004)
Pokémon Diamond/Pearl (2006) -> Pokémon Emerald (2008)
Now, what year were Pokémon Black and White released in? 2010. Even if we assume that the Spring game is our third version, (throughout the various cultures, Spring can be February, March, April or May), even if the third version is released during those months, the time gap will still be more than that between Red/Green and Blue and Gold/Silver and Crystal. There is also always the possibility that the Spring game could be a spin off and Japan will get the next main series game in autumn (although unlikely considering that the Japanese version mascot poll giveaway is in February, it would make sense if this was done just before the next main series game is released. Still, as the past has shown us, it still wouldn't be too soon.
Would 2012 be too soon for remakes though? Definitely. The last set of remakes were released in September 2009; the ones before that in January 2004. If GameFreak release remakes too soon after another, it would look bad on the company. Sure, they would still make a load of money, but from the innovation, "new idea" point of view, wouldn't it run a huge risk of making investors and analysts think GameFreak are out of ideas? I know that if I was investing in a company, I wouldn't be too happy to see them focusing on recycling their old ideas instead of putting out new ones. Also, as I said earlier - GameFreak will want to finish this current generation on the Nintendo DS, to avoid facing the same problems they encountered during BW's development when they get around to making Generation VI. Before anyone says that a Nintendo DS game in 2012 is a terrible idea - Nintendo UK released their early Spring release schedule today, which contained a Nintendo DS game. Yes, it's only two games (well, two versions of the same game) but a while ago, Nintendo did say that the DS and 3DS can co-exist for some time; it is now obvious that this also extends into 2012. The way I see it, Nintendo will want GameFreak to release the next game earlier than usual to still attract an audience who may still only have a Nintendo DS and to be able to release the game internationally in the same year - I think we can all agree that if Nintendo released a new DS game in western territories in 2013, 2 years after the successor was launched, it would be a bad idea.
So if we go with that, that will mean that 2012 will see the last Pokémon DS game released (which will also be the last Generation V game). This will open up 2013 for Generation VI.
"But wait!" you might ask. "What about Meloetta and Genesect?!". Fair enough - Victini being the star of the movie 14 pair despite being released the previous September did throw a spanner in the works there. I am honestly surprised that Keldeo didn't take its place, or that Keldeo wasn't unveiled earlier. However, it can still be salvaged.
If we go with the theory that Keldeo will be revealed this month or next February (As was the Generation IV standard), that could still leave late-2012 for Meloetta's reveal, then early 2013 for Genesect's. The Pokémon Company could easily giveaway a Meloetta late next year like they did with Victini and have Genesect as the main movie giveaway. They could possibly withhold Melotta's Fateful Encounter tag for a movie-pre-order bonus and advertise its ability to transform, or just give it a special move (after all, that was the only difference between the Liberty Garden Victini and the movie 14 Victini).
So to put it bluntly:
Movie 14 (2011): Victini
Movie 15 (2012): Keldeo
Movie 16 (2013): Melotta and Genesect
This theory is also supported by the fact that as of this thursday with the appearance of Thundurus, Tornadus and Landorus, every non-Mythical Unova legendary Pokémon would have appeared in the anime at some point, which obviously leaves the co-star spot empty...unless it was filled by another mythical Pokémon!
So if we assume the third version will end Generation V (As it did with Generation II) and following on with that movie theory, it is safe to assume that Generation VI will launch in 2013 (Most likely in September; after all, the movie will be released in July). So the following game time-line seems possible:
2010: Pokémon Black and White (DS)
2012: Pokémon Grey (DS)
2013: Generation VI Primary Pair (3DS).
Now, if we continue the tradition of a third version being released four years after the previous one, that extends to:
2010: Pokémon Black and White (DS)
2012: Pokémon Grey (DS)
2013: Generation VI Primary Pair (3DS).
2016: Generation VI Third Version (3DS).
Now, you might notice that there is a 3 year gap between the Gen VI Primary Pair and third version. Yes, that is too long. So what will fit in-between? As the "Third Version 2 years after Primary Pair" has only occurred twice (RS -> Emerald and DP -> Platinum) we can't call that a pattern yet. However, we do have a clear pattern with third versions being released four years apart. So what other options are they?
Yes fanboys and girls, you can squeal so loud that all other sound becomes inaudible as my ears explode now. The difference between FRLG and HGSS was 5 years in Japan, but 6 years internationally. Now, this time-gap has only happened once so we cannot call it a pattern. FRLG were a special case with releases though, as they were launched in the first quarter of 2004 to mimic how Red and Green are the only other games so far to be launched in the first quarter, so that left the end of the year open for The Pokémon Company, hence why Emerald was released then. If the "One game a year" rule was followed, there would be the six year gap between the games in Japan as well.
Now, 2009 + 6 = 2015.
That could very well make the schedule:
2010: Pokémon Black and White (DS).
2012: Pokémon Grey (DS).
2013: Generation VI Primary Pair (3DS).
2015: Ruby/Sapphire Remakes (£DS).
2016: Generation VI Third Version (3DS).
Now, it could be argued that because of FRLG and Emerald's release years, if we get Grey earlier this year, Japan could get Generation VI this year too, right? Nope. Meloetta and Genesect will still need to be revealed as I detailed above.
Now I know a lot of the fandom are looking at the recent Pokémon Time merchandise that is currently expanding into Generation III Pokémon. However, notice the name "Pokémon Time" and how it focuses on past generations? The line launched in 2008 with Kanto-focused merchandise; 4 years after FireRed and LeafGreen, so it can be assumed that 2009's Johto merchandise coinciding with HeartGold and SoulSilver's release was merely coincidental; especially as the new merchandise has actually been available since last month, so it isn't being specially released for 2012.
Now another interesting point is that recently, Junichi Masuda has become an active user of Twitter (you will even notice a link in my sig to a tweet where he states my dog is cute. She is very cute, don't even try and argue it btw). In October, Junichi Masuda responded to tweets regarding people's love for Ruby and Sapphire and their hope for remakes (which was spun out of proportion due to a mistranslation), yet he has not responded to any tweets regarding a third version. This strikes me that the Ruby/Sapphire remakes are currently not in development, because if they were, there is no way Junichi Masuda would be allowed to talk about them prior to an official announcement. However, interviews of the past have shown that Black and White entered early development after Diamond and Pearl's launch (as did Platinum, HeartGold and SoulSilver) so it is safe to assume that, even if GameFreak aren't currently working on the games themselves, they are currently working on the scenarios and Pokémon designs for Generation VI.
So there we have it. That is why I feel what I feel in regards to the immediate future of the Pokémon franchise. Now, if anyone can bring forth any strong evidence that suggests why this may be wrong, I will happily listen, unless it sounds like this, which a lot of the fan-reasoning in favour of them being released earlier does.
H-con and farewell, friend like this.
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