Karamazov Wants Four Blog Posts Today
by, 10th July 2012 at 12:28 PM (236 Views)
Here is number 3.
This thought was initially born from my previous blog. My friend linked to the baseball throw thing on Facebook, so I went and checked that out, then looked at the next one, which was presumably posted today.
The second article is about guessing on the SAT. The question was "What if everyone who took the SAT guessed on every multiple-choice question? How many perfect scores would there be?" so he found the number of multiple choice questions that are asked on the SAT and calculated the probability of getting a perfect score assuming you guessed completely randomly on each question. Now that was cool and all, but I did have a problem with one statement in the article, namely where he said “You lose points for leaving questions blank, which means guessing can sometimes be a good strategy.” He must have noticed that this statement was incorrect, because now that I go back to check, it has been edited.
Basically I noted to my friend that you don't lose points for leaving a question blank, you earn 0 points for leaving a question blank and -1/4 points for an incorrect answer. This sparked a 40 comment long Facebook argument which included semantics debates and circular logic. However, we also got into the nature of random numbers and how a human is not a very good random number generator. Even for a computer true randomness depends what kind of method you use for random number generation (anyone who has ever RNG'd for IVs or shininess in a Pokemon game can tell you that).
Okay, fast forward about 20 minutes. The same dude posts another article about humans and random numbers. Now before you open this spoiler, I want you to think of a random number between 0 and 20.
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