Category 5 Hurricane Felix threatens Central America

[Evil Figment]

Hurricane Felix, the second hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is now in the Carribeans. Where exactly it will go is yet to be seen. The Yucatan or Belize is likely.

929 MB pressure
165 MPH winds.

Felix has, as predicted, undergone rapid intensification (and it might not be over yet) and is now a sadistically dangerous category 5 hurricane. Current forecasts calls for landfall in Belize or in the Yucatan, then for the storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico. What it will do then remain unknown.

EDIT : Sunday afternoon picture

http://i13.tinypic.com/54156kl.jpg

[The Big Al]

Anyone want to take bets Felix will be retired when all is said and done?

[Evil Figment]

We'll see. Dean looked set to hit retirement, but managed to miss anything that would have gotten it retired.

[Steph]

The names they're choosing for hurricanes suck.

[Evil Figment]

Yeah, can't say this year has any really inspiring names.

Well, Erin wasn't too bad, but it got stuck on a TS. And Gabrielle won't be too bad either.

[The Big Al]

My Mom said Humberto will be big so we'll have to see.

[The Big Al]

The models can't seem to make their minds. Apparently a trough that could set up in the next few days is threatening to draw Felix northward now.

[Evil Figment]

45% of a 4-5 in 36-48 hours.

EDIT : Felix is now the second major hurricane of the season at category 3.

[The Big Al]

Winds up 20 mph in just 3 hours.

[Evil Figment]

Filched from Jeff Master's (Weather Underground) blog.

until the storm emerges into the Gulf of Mexico after crossing the Yucatan. At that point, a trough of low pressure strong enough to bring Felix to the Texas coast may move through. It is too early to guess how strong this trough might be, and what the potential risk to Texas is.

Re-Argh.

Also, with the way this thing has been going, special update before 5 to announce we now have Felix the Cat-4 (sorry. Too easy). is entirely possible.

In fact, latest recon seems to lean toward a lower-end Cat-4 already.

[The Big Al]

If Felix reaches Cat 5 I think we should start worrying about 2005's Category 5 Hurricane record.

[Evil Figment]

...FELIX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

140 MPH. Another 15 MPH increase in 3 hours.

For those keeping track at home, this is how it has gone so far :

2AM : 80 MPH, category 1
5AM : 100 MPH, Category 2
8AM : 100 MPH, Category 2
11AM : 105 MPH, Category 2
2PM : 125 MPH, Category 3
5PM : 140 MPH, Category 4

35 MPH and C-2 to C-4 in 6 hours. Impressive.

[Hyperbeam dragon]

Wow,it's been a stuffed hurricane season.It's been one-after-another for hurricanes in the south. But you're right about the machcines and such.They really can't make it right,I mean,on the mornings today or yesterday's news,they said it was a catigory 1!! My prayers are with the people in the south. P.s:Another 2 things that are shaking things up:Fires and earthquakes!!! Jake

[Rayne]

Category Four? Already!?

Its certainly not the first time a hurricane's underwent rapid growth, but those hurricanes were approaching land. Felix still has a bit of time to develop [or on the plus side deteriorate and get swept aside.]

[Evil Figment]

Unfortunately, it's about to hit even WARMER water than what it's already seen.

On the plus side, we should get an Eyewall Replacement Cycle..

...eventually.

...and if we get it too soon, the damn thing will just climb back up to full strength before hitting land, except it will be a *larger* hurricane when it does.

[The Big Al]

And in the meantime the models continue to argue about the strength of the ridge. It's looking more and more likely the ridge that shoved Dean south will be weaker by the time Felix reaches the gulf opening up possibilities for a right turn into the gulf and strike who knows where.

[Hyperbeam dragon]

Wow,it's been a stuffed hurricane season.It's been one-after-another for hurricanes in the south. But you're right about the machcines and such.They really can't make it right,I mean,on the mornings today or yesterday's news,they said it was a catigory 1!! My prayers are with the people in the south. P.s:Another 2 things that are shaking things up:Fires and earthquakes!!! Jake

[The Big Al]

Felix is now a CAT-5 with 165. In 18 hours Felix has run the spectrum of Hurricane intensity.

[Evil Figment]

Good frelling God.

Thirteen days between two C-5s. Even 2005 never came under the two weeks limit.

In fact, under the two weeks limit happened only once in history - 1960 - and even then, one of the two hurricane has its C-5 status contested.

Edited : Filched from one of many reports :

"A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT."

Re-Edited : The NHC recalled their hurricane hunter plane and aborted the mission due to how extreme the conditions are!

[The Big Al]

That's one powerful storm if they're afraid of sending the plane. A dropsonde traveling halfway around the storm is also insane. How strong is this thing?

[Evil Figment]

Too strong.

And keep in mind - in the words of the NHC : "AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN."

World-class ARGH-ness.

[Rayne]

So freaking strong.

Well, I'll just say at this freakishly exponential rate, I wouldn't be surprised if
Felix tops the unnamed Labor Day hurricane's speed record [~200mph 1935].

Gee... I wonder what's tomorrow.

[Evil Figment]

Tomorrow, tomorrow...

Ah, yes. Tomorrow's the NHC's news conference where they will announce the creation of Categories 6, 7, 8 and 9.

They will also announce that Tropical Storm will now be "Category 0 Hurricane". That way all "named systems" will be hurricanes now.

Henceforth, all Tropical Depressions will be refered to as Tropical Storms, Tropical Waves as Tropical Clouds, and Invests will be "Tropical Trouble".

The NHC will also rename themselves the National Bear Commitee, to avoid drawing the attention of hurricanes that, if reports are to be believed, are getting increasingly annoyed at being constantly second-guessed by the NHC.

(Kidding, obviously)

[Evil Figment]

165 MPH, 929 MB at 5AM.

[The Big Al]

Felix now 3rd fastest intensifying storm in a 24 hour period behind only Gilbert and Wilma.

[Evil Figment]

And the damnable thing veered south. Where we thought we had still a few days before landfall, we've barely got 24 hours instead.

On the plus side it has fluctuated a litlle downward in intensity.

[Evil Figment]

Just in : NOAA has canceled all planned flights of their P-3 for today and tomorrow.

Looks like the plane is out of service following yesterday.

Also, for those of you who play with Google Earth : http://wxgr.nl/?weer_recon.htm

Live tracking of the AF and NOAA recons, as well as a link to a site with up to date satellite weather pictures.

[Evil Figment]

Maybe three hours from landfall. Less, actually, now. Fel is intensifying again, up to 150 MPH now.

Potential for some more intensification before landfall. It may well be that by my next post, 2007 will have made hurricane history...

Edit : 155 MPH EXACTLY AT 5AM.

It has been intensifying lately, and is about to cross the coast. If it can gain one single mile per hour by landfall, 2007 makes the records book.

(Felix's own place is already secured, incidentally - fastest intensification from TD to C-5 on the books at 51 hours)

[The Big Al]

Write those records. Felix is a CAT-5 once again as it's making landfall.

Like I said, the way we're going the C-5 record set in 2005 might be in danger. The name retirement record (also 2005) might also be danger if we can get four more big storms. (Dean will likely be retired because of damage done in Jamaica and elsewhere even if Mexico lucked out.)

It should be noted my Mom said Dean and Felix would be big ones at the beginning of the season. She also said Humberto would be a big one so we'll have to see.

[Evil Figment]

Voila.

With Felix, 2007 becomes the first year ever to witness two category five landfalls in the same year.

And the season isn't over.

In bad news :

"The only path to safety is up rivers and across lakes that are too shallow for regular boats, but many lack gasoline for long journeys. Provincial health official Efrain Burgos estimated that 18,000 people must find their own way to higher ground." - this could potentially be a massacre.

And. in the morbidly smile-worthy department, here is what the newspaper La Prensa of Honduras had to say on the topic :

http://www.metsul.com/__editor/imagemanager/images/setembro2007/tropical0409f.JPG

[The Big Al]

Oh dear God that's so sick and funny at the same time.

I'm waiting for the latest version of Showcreator to come in here and say Global Warming is bunk.