Hurricane Dean Threatens Mexico

[The Big Al]

Hurricane Watches and Warnings are up for the Windwards meaning Dean has his own thread.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/160241.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024026.shtml?5day#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024026.shtml?table#contents

Category 2 Hurricane
Motion: W 32 kph (20 mph)
Max Winds: 130 kph (80 mph)
Min Pressure: 970 mb
Next Likely Landfall: Mexico

[Evil Figment]

Hey, I wanted to make this thread, jerk :-D

[The Big Al]

Well I'm the resident atmospheric science major. I can make a hurricane thread every once and while. :smokin:

[Evil Figment]

You should probably edit the thread title to be more informative (then edit it further as the information change), though :-p

(And edit the initial post so it actually give details to the Hurri-N00bs)

[The Big Al]

I editted the title and stuff. The links are self updating so I'll just have to update the winds, pressure, position, speed, and direction.

[The Big Al]

Sorry for the double post but the latest advisory has Dean as a Cat 4-5 storm in 72 hours.

It's also looking like a Texas landfall unless Dean is pciked up by something.

[Evil Figment]

Yep. Windward - Yucatan - Texas is what it looks like.

[Evil Figment]

In the "it jsut keeps getting worse" department, it seems Dean might be trying to develop a pinhole eye.

For the non-hurricane-watcers, yes, that's pretty much hurricane speak for "Evil Eye".

[The Big Al]

What's more interesting is the development around that eye. Dean is looking more and more like a textbook hurricane which means a strong, well organized hurricane. Right it looks there will be little to impede strengthening as the waters are warm and the wind shear is almost non-existant.

[Evil Figment]

What's even scarier is that Jeff Masters - who is usually pretty conservative on his forecasts - says this :

"Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004."

Similar intensity to hurricane *fucking* Gilbert.

This. Is. SO. not good.

[The Big Al]

Category 5 'canes. Not good indeed.

I've updated the first post with the new information. I've also added landfall and areas affected lines.

Unfortunately it's looking more and more likey Texas will bear the brunt of Dean. Prepare for outrageous gas prices.

[Umby]

*crosses fingers and hopes it misses Louisiana*

[Mozz]

Let's go Dean-o, Let's go!

[The Big Al]

The track has shifted slightly north taking Dean right over Jamaica. It also make it more liely to thread the needle between Cuba and the mainland into the Gulf. It also makes U.S. landfall all the more likely.

What's really scary is that the wind probably table goes "N/A" in 72 hours meaning Dean will LIKELY be a Cat 4-5.

[Evil Figment]

Major hurricane Dean at Category 3 now. 50% of a Category 4/5 within 12 hours.

And the worst part? The GFDL model has veered still further west.

And by further west, I mean the absolute worst case scenario.

NOLA.

[The Big Al]

Rapid strengthening seems to be underway.

[Evil Figment]

Yep, that's definitely what I'm hearing too.

[The Big Al]

Forecasts say nothing is out there to really impede strengthening. Though with insanely strong Hurricanes fluctuation during eyewall replacement can be expected.

GFDL is the outsider in forecasting right now. However, it's proven very accurate with storm tracks. Does it know something we don't?

[Evil Figment]

Let's hope it's just being wrong.

[Evil Figment]

8PM Update - Category 4, 130 MPH, 946 MB.

[The Big Al]

Pressure now 946, down 15 from last advisory. This is one healthy storm. Well defined eye, good outflow. This thing could be a Cat 5 monster when it hits Jamaica. We may have to look up the last time a storm like this hit the island.

[Evil Figment]

As far as recorded hurricane history goes - never.

They had a number of close brush with deaths, but have so far always managed to dodge the bullet - either the storm waited until it cleared Jamaica to hit category 4/5, or else it would narrowly miss the island at the last moment, or both.

And we're not exactly talking about losers hurricanes here - we're talking Atlantic top-10ers - Allen (#4), Ivan (#9), Gilbert (#2)...

Also, so people knows what exactly we're talking about :
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Suitably impressive.

[The Big Al]

Classic Textbook Hurricane.

Look at that eye. It's almost dead center in the storm and round. This storm is far from peaked.

[Evil Figment]

Indeed.

NHC released a special 9:30 PM update - up to 145 MPH winds (from 135 at 8!).

Rapid intensification alright.

In related news, Texas and Louisiana have declared a State of Emergency. Mississipi is urging resident to have their evacuation plan ready in case Dean turns north.

Models changing their tunes again - GFDL on Houston, everyone else didly-dawdling somewhere in Mexico or southern Texas.

Al - time for a thread title change, perhaps - "Major Hurricane Dean threatens Jamaica and further" would work nicely (and further because the models still can't seem to agree on where further is)

[Evil Figment]

11 PM advisory out. 145 MPH still, 937 MB pressure.

EDIT : 2 AM Advisory. 150 MPH, 930 MB pressure.

6MPH short of Category 5. 17 MB short of a top-ten ranking.

[The Big Al]

The eye appears to be collapsing, suggesting we may be headed into an eyewall replacement. Eyewall replacements are a wild card as anything could happen.

[Rayne]

Aye, what a monster Dean is turning out to be. Its certainly a wake up call to those who thought we were getting out of 2007 lightly [even though this should be normal]. The season's only getting started.

As of 11 AM, 929 MB pressure, 150 MPH.

I'm really concerned about where the track is placing Dean since I have family that has recently relocated to southern Texas, closer to the Gulf. And of course, I share my concern with all those in the path seeing that Dean doesn't show any signs of weakening either. Preparedness is something these folks can't take for granted.

Good luck Jamaica.

Category 5 status doesn't seem improbable once it hits the Gulf. Its still holding strong with 50% chance of obtaining Cat 5 status by tomorrow.

[The Big Al]

Dean has turned to the WNW. This might suggest the dreaded GFDL model more of a reality. We'll have to watch trends to see if this course holds.

[Evil Figment]

At this point, "wait and see" is all that's left to do. The GFDL and the others have forecast virtually EVERY scenario they could cook up; we won't know which was on the money until this thing is inland.

Hopefully we won't be too busy counting the dead to care at that point.

[Mozz]

I'm not rooting for any dead... Just a good deal of damage and some nice videos of fast winds :D

[The Big Al]

Hopefully that damage won't include oil wells or refineries. The gas prices are too high as it is.

[Evil Figment]

Per the discussion, the pressure is now down to 918 MB.

Eyewall replacement may be underway, as well.

[Rayne]

Cripes, that thing's getting low.

[The Big Al]

Slight weakening but that's to be expected with eyewall replacement. The track has shifted south making Texas less of a threat. However, we still can't let out guards down as hurricanes have been known to throw curve balls.

[pikachu12]

i know about hurricane dean...unfortunately my uncle was there at the moment this hurricane happened.i don't know if he's ok,because i tried to e-mail him like 20 times,and no response.

[Evil Figment]

You will likely have to wait. Communications during major disasters are notoriously slow.

145/930 by the 5PM advisory.

[Evil Figment]

150/926 per 8AM advisory. Past Jamaica (which adds yet another miraculous bullet-dodge to its record), and headed toward Yucatan.

Will update this post with the 11 AM advisory shortly.

EDIT : 150/925 at 11.

150/924 at 2.

[Evil Figment]

And we're back to 918 MB.

Will it go the extra mile and bring home a top-10 rank? Stay tuned.

[The Big Al]

It looks to be an all Mexican affair now barring an change of course flying in the face of all the forecast models.

[Evil Figment]

8PM is in - 915 MB!

[Evil Figment]

UPDATE - 8:35 - 160 MPH/Category Five!

[The Big Al]

Changes have been made to the initial post.

Damn, Cape Verdes are never good news.

[Evil Figment]

914 MB.

Tied in 10th position with Janet now.

[The Big Al]

906, it's beaten Janet off the list.

[Evil Figment]

And pushed Ivan back to #10 ; it's also #3 for intensity at landfall behind Labor Day and Gilbert, and ahead of Camille, and well ahead of any of the 2005 storms.

[Shuko]

I heard on the news this morning it was downgraded to a category 3. How could that have happened? Only five minutes prior they were still listing it as a category five. o_0

[The Big Al]

It's over land and weakening quickly. But it made landfall as a Cat. 5, the first to do so in 15 years. Apparently Mitch did not make landfall as a 5 in '98.

[Evil Figment]

Yes, once a hurricane is over land, it will weaken quickly.

(Ok : Christine of 1973 not withstanding, since that freak actually formed over Africa)

[xRubyx]

I'm glad it wont hit Mexico City......I think *knows really nothing about hurricanes* X(

[Rayne]

I'm glad it wont hit Mexico City......I think *knows really nothing about hurricanes* X(

Well from the current predictions, there are good chances Dean will sweep over the Mexican capital.

On the positive side, Mexico city is far enough inland that I'd expect no more than tropical storm status by the time Dean's eye move that far in land. Mexico City is going to get hit by the rain bands no doubt, and most points along Mexico's Gulf coast. The rain will come down in some good bursts and winds will be gusty, [hopefully about 40-70mph at that time] but no where near as monstorous as it was before hitting the Yucatan.

From my experience, when big storms like Dean weaken, you get a mainly rain event out of their deteriorated status. I think it should be no worse than a summer storm before getting inland.

The coast on the otherhand may have reason to worry. I can see Dean strengthening as it approaches the Gulf now.

[GrnMarvl13]

UFOs protecting Tampico? (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293932,00.html?sPage=fnc.foxfan/blogs) Short, interesting news piece related to the hurricane. And it's interesting to see someone putting their faith in UFOs. I'll definitely be keeping an eye out for damage from Tampico...see if their system works.

[Rayne]

You know, that sounds shockingly similar to an exaggeration I made in another thread around here...

I do recall that a lot of amateur UFO videos come from around the Mexico City area, but I didn't think the locals were that aware of it too. The legends spur deep.

[xRubyx]

Thanks, I'm just worried about my family over there :P

[Evil Figment]

Oh for crying out fucking loud...

GFDL is at it *AGAIN*.

This time it's predicting reintensification from 1 to 5 in the Gulf, then actually pulling a trans-continental, and reemerging in the Pacific and there going category 2 in the Bay of California, with a final landfall probably in the north end of the bay.

Hopefully it's going to be as wrong as it was about NOLA.

[Evil Figment]

Well, what do you know.

Ex-Dean = East Pacific Invest 93E :-D

If and when it redevelop, it will get a new name due to losing TD characteristics.

Development is not anticipated (sayeth the NHC), tho.

Now I've got this wonderful mental image of Dean as the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail...

[The Big Al]

Dean being associated with something that morbidly funny is just wrong.

[Evil Figment]

Admit it, this little Pacific stunt reeks of "'Tis but a flesh wound!"

In any event, the Pacific invest has dissipated, and Dean is finally off the map for good.